Tensions between the United States and China are rising, and nowhere is that fact more noticeable than the South China Sea where China has built some artificial islands and claimed other atolls as its territory.
They’ve constructed military bases on some of these atoll-sized islands, which is a provocation for the Philippines and Vietnam, who also claim some of those islands. And the U.S. refuses to recognize China’s claims that the islands and surrounding ocean are Chinese territories.
This is why there is such a danger of conflict near those islands, as the U.S. constantly exercises its internationally recognized right of freedom of the skies and seas.
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China is getting more aggressive in pushing back against the U.S. exercising its rights. And sometimes, it can get very dicey.
The U.S. Navy plane had been in the air over the South China Sea for a few hours when a warning came crackling over the radio.
“No approaching any more or you will pay full responsibility,” said a voice from a ground station belonging to China’s air force.
Soon after, a Chinese J-11 fighter jet appeared about 500 feet off the left wing, flying beside the American P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft for well over an hour as it passed over mostly uninhabited islands that are claimed by both China and its neighbors.
U.S. sources say these encounters are becoming more frequent in the aftermath of the spy balloon incident, and Chinese pressure on Taiwan has also increased. So far, it appears that China is simply probing for weaknesses and testing responses. But the U.S. doesn’t know what’s a test and what might be the real thing. This has our pilots on edge when flying their patrols.
The result is some tense encounters. Late last year, the U.S. military said an Air Force aircraft conducting routine operations over the South China Sea was forced to take evasive maneuvers to avoid colliding with a Chinese fighter jet that was flying dangerously close. Beijing blamed the U.S. and said it would continue to take “necessary measures.”
Given U.S.-China tensions over issues including China’s surveillance balloon program, the concern is that a minor incident in the South China Sea could easily escalate, said John Rennie Short, a professor at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, who studies the geopolitics of the region.
“You just worry that a small spark could burst into flame,” said Short.
Accidents or miscalculations would be the most probable cause of war. China isn’t ready for war with the United States and won’t be until close to the end of the decade when their military build-up will be near completion.
But the best-laid plans often go awry. And when someone like Joe Biden is in the White House, anything could happen.
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