In recent months, China has been putting increasing pressure on Taiwan, continuously violating the island’s airspace with warplanes and speaking to Taiwan and its ally the United States in harsh, uncompromising tones.
It’s no secret that the Chinese Communists are not going to wait for Taiwan to vote to rejoin the mainland anytime soon. But U.S. officials are becoming more worried that China is preparing a major military move against Taiwan, and some analysts believe China would prefer to make that move sooner rather than later.
The United States has been selling Taiwan more and more sophisticated weapons. While no one seriously entertains the thought that Taiwan could resist China for very long, the goal appears to be making a Chinese military strike so expensive in terms of men and material that they are deterred from doing it.
Now, the tension in the region is about to be ratcheted up tenfold. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is planning an August visit to Taiwan, and the Chinese have gone ballistic, threatening “serious consequences” if she insists on going.
“If the United States insists on going ahead, China will take firm and resolute measures to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the U.S. will be responsible for all of the serious consequences,” Zhao Lijian, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, said at a regularly scheduled media briefing on Monday.
Related: Biden Says Pelosi’s Trip to Taiwan Next Month Is ‘Not a Good Idea Right Now’
Biden has suggested that Pelosi not go to Taiwan. So has the Pentagon, which sees several nightmare scenarios possibly emerging from this trip.
The New York Times:
Ms. Pelosi would be likely to fly to Taipei on a U.S. military aircraft, as is typical of such visits. Some analysts looking at Chinese denunciations of the proposed visit say that China could send aircraft to “escort” her plane and prevent it from landing.
This scenario is a legitimate concern, U.S. officials said, though it is improbable, and any such move would be seen by Washington as a serious escalation. The officials interviewed for this story spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivities over diplomatic matters.
Even if Biden saw the move as a “serious escalation,” what could he do? Cut trade with China? A useless gesture. The fact is that Biden — quite rightly — wouldn’t risk going to war over Taiwan’s independence. We’ll sell them arms. We’ll give them diplomatic cover and support. But starting World War III over territory that much of the world recognizes as Beijing’s isn’t going to happen.
As long as China can’t be sure that we’re bluffing, the gambit will work. But what happens if President Xi is willing to risk war with the United States to retrieve his position?
Xi and other Chinese leaders are preparing for a major party congress. The Chinese Communists can ill afford to show any deference to the United States at this time.
“The domestic political situation in China right now is extremely tense in the months before the party congress when Xi hopes to be approved for an unprecedented third term,” said Susan L. Shirk, a former senior State Department official and author of “Overreach,” an upcoming book on Chinese politics.
“The risk is that the visit by Speaker Pelosi will be perceived, including by Xi himself, as a humiliation of his leadership and that he takes some rash action to show his strength,” she said. “What’s more, in view of his recent misjudgments that have harmed the country and sparked internal controversy — the draconian approach to Covid management, aligning with Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the crackdown on private business — we can’t count on his prudence in his military response to Pelosi’s trip. Better to postpone rather than risk war.”
Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China, said that Xi would want a strong response, but not too aggressive. In the end, Shi just doesn’t know. “I don’t think anyone can predict in any detail what China will do militarily,” he said.
Hu Xijin, the former chief editor of Global Times, a Chinese Communist Party propaganda sheet, also suggested that Chinese warplanes “escort” Pelosi’s aircraft to Taiwan. Hu thinks there will be some kind of military response by Beijing.
The Chinese mainland has various plans to counteract Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, and I believe what I have said is one of them. It is certain that the mainland’s response to Pelosi’s visit will be unprecedented and will involve shocking military response. https://t.co/V1t2hETaMd
— Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) July 20, 2022
Meanwhile, Taiwan is holding daily air raid drills and testing its missile warning system, which sends mass text messages to residents in the event of incoming attacks.
Has Beijing read Joe Biden correctly? Recall that Biden is also in political trouble, and historically, presidents like to get involved in “splendid little wars” to recover their position.
It is most worrisome that a war between the United States and China in the next month over Taiwan may not be impossible.
