All of us expect the White House to try to spin bad economic news. “What we’re trying to say is that the economy is in a better place than it has been historically,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters. “We feel that we are in a good position to take on inflation.”
That’s some heavy-duty, industrial-strength spin there. Telling people that the economy is “historically” in a better place is like the captain of the Titanic saying that “Historically, there shouldn’t be any icebergs nearby.”
Both statements could be true, but that doesn’t make them correct.
Biden has said much the same thing. “We’ve laid an economic foundation that’s historically strong, and now we’re moving forward to a new moment where we can build on that foundation to build a future of stable, steady growth, so we can bring down inflation without sacrificing all the historic gains we’ve made,” the president said. “There’s every reason for the American people to feel confident that we’ll meet these challenges.”
The president made these comments after the economy added 390,000 jobs last month, according to the latest data, the weakest since last year. The unemployment rate stayed at 3.6% in May, the lowest level in decades.
“As we move to a new period of stable, steady growth, we should expect to see more moderation,” Biden said.
We remember being told that once COVID-19 rides off into the sunset, inflation will cool and the economy will be right as rain. Then we had to wait for the supply chain snafus to clear up. Then it was the fault of those meany Russians and their dirty little war in Ukraine.
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Biden, ever the casual observer and never an active participant, thinks it’s “outrageous” that the Russians have caused $5-a-gallon gas.
A reporter in the press pool following Biden asked the president for his thoughts about the nationwide average price of gas exceeding $5 per gallon. Biden deferred blame to the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
“It’s outrageous what the war in Ukraine is causing,” Biden began.
Huh? The drop in supply due to Russia’s war of aggression is less than 3%. That’s hardly a big enough disruption to cause a 30% rise in prices since the first of the year.
The president then proceeded to emphasize the government’s decision to tap into U.S. oil reserves.
“We’re trying very hard to make sure we can significantly increase the amount of barrels of oil that are being pumped out of the reserve we have,” he added.
Energy is only one issue. Taken as a whole, the economy is in terrible danger of slipping into a deep recession. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, an economic adviser to former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, has been warning about high inflation for more than a year. He now says the economy will go into recession sometime early next year.
Even if these predictions turn out to be wrong, the White House risks running counter to hardwired public perceptions of the economy. “That’s akin to telling someone whose house is on fire that the mailbox survived without a scratch,” said Republican pollster Neil Newhouse.
“The Biden administration is trying to distract Americans from what is in front of their faces every day — that prices continue to go up with no end in sight,” Newhouse said. “Messaging isn’t going to solve the problem that Democrats have on the economy.”
Biden will attempt to finesse his problems by trying to blame someone else. As Newhouse points out, this isn’t a messaging problem; it’s a policy problem. And to address it, Biden will have to admit he was wrong about spending and rein in the government.
It’s not in Biden’s nature to admit error. So the economic pain will continue until Biden and the Democrats are swept from office.
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