Richard Fernandez: Forming an Anti-Establishment Coalition

Dissent rarely springs directly from established politcal parties. They tend to emerge from grassroots movements, from the outside, often starting with a few individuals or groups who share a common dissatisfaction with the status quo and begin organizing protests, rallies, and other forms of collective action. Over time, these movements may begin to coalesce around a shared set of values, goals, and principles. They may form alliances with other like-minded groups, or even with individuals who are not typically aligned with their cause, in order to build a broader coalition.

Successful anti-establishment coalitions are typically able to harness public frustration and anger in a way that allows them to gain momentum and support from a wide range of individuals and groups. They may use social media and other forms of digital communication to spread their message and build a base of support. Anti-establishment coalitions can take many different forms and have different agendas, depending on the specific context in which they arise. Examples in history include:

• The Populist Party: In the late 19th century, farmers and other rural Americans who felt left behind by the industrialization and urbanization of American society formed the Populist Party. The party advocated for policies such as government ownership of railroads, a graduated income tax, and the unlimited coinage of silver to increase the money supply. Although the Populist Party was short-lived, its ideas and values had a lasting impact on American politics.
• The Progressive Movement: In the early 20th century, a broad-based coalition of activists, reformers, and intellectuals came together to form the Progressive Movement. The movement was characterized by a belief in the power of government to improve social and economic conditions, and it advocated for policies such as workplace safety regulations, the direct election of senators, and the breakup of monopolies. The Progressive Movement was a major force in American politics for several decades.
• The Civil Rights Movement: In the 1950s and 1960s, African Americans and their allies came together to form the Civil Rights Movement. The movement was driven by a belief in racial equality and justice, and it advocated for policies such as desegregation, voting rights, and affirmative action. The Civil Rights Movement was successful in bringing about significant changes to American society and politics, including the passage of the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act.
• Last but not least, the Tea Party Movement: In the late 2000s and early 2010s, a grassroots movement of conservatives and libertarians came together to form the Tea Party Movement. The movement was characterized by a belief in limited government, fiscal responsibility, and free markets, and it advocated for policies such as tax cuts, deregulation, and a balanced budget amendment. Although the Tea Party Movement was not successful in achieving all of its policy goals, it had a significant impact on American politics and helped to shift the Republican Party to the right.

It will be readily apparent that coalitions are historically transitory phenomena. They rarely make the transition from issue-focused alliances into mainstream political parties. The two-party system has been a part of American politics since the early days of the republic. The Federalists and the Democratic-Republicans were the two major parties in the late 1700s and early 1800s, and since then, the two-party system has persisted through numerous changes and challenges. But that doesn’t mean coalitions are without effect. They leave a lasting mark on governance. “In the past 150-plus years the two dominant parties have changed their ideologies and bases of support considerably, while maintaining their names,” according to Wikipedia.

Joe Biden, who is the ultimate “united front” product, prefers to face off against Donald Trump, reckoning that DJT is too egotistic and me-oriented to ever build a coalition against the Borg. Biden at this point is less a real agent than a brand like Betty Crocker. JB spent 50 years in Washington before doing eight years as VP. Now he wants to spend eight years as president. That’s over 65 years in the swamp. He’s so thoroughly marinated you wonder what original parts are still left. His strategy for re-election in 2024 comes down to one thing: divide and conquer.

Perhaps the future of American politics revolves around a single question: is there enough energy and strategic thinking out there to build an effective coalition against the establishment in 2024 and beyond? Can the rebels institutionalize themselves within the party system? The GOP House holds out on a blank check for the borrowing limit unless Biden cuts a deal.

• House Republicans passed a bill proposing to raise the nation’s $31.4 trillion borrowing limit in exchange for deep cuts in government spending, aiming to jump-start talks with President Biden ahead of an approaching deadline for the federal government to avoid default.
• Republicans said their cards are now on the table and that Mr. Biden needs to engage in talks before it gets too late. Mr. McCarthy said that Mr. Biden is “putting the American economy in jeopardy by his lack of action. Now he should sit down and negotiate.”

This might be cynically interpreted as a horse-trading gambit. Neither the Dems nor the GOP can be relied on to save the nation, but in this Alien vs Predator struggle, the public can maneuver while the monsters are busy fighting each other. The unanswered question is whether there exists some opportunity that a political entrepreneur can exploit while the Alien vs Predator fight rages on that will build networks and attract resources in response to economic, social, or technological crises. The answer is probably “no” for as long as the Biden coalition forces the greater GOP to primarily engage on crazy woke issues, far from the core issues of money and power. The Biden camp is very good at manipulation and they are far from done.

But the pressure on the establishment is building. The dam cannot hold forever.