Stroking Beards While Shaving Reality

For all intents and purposes, no matter what anyone else says, Alabama and Mississippi were three way ties.

It did not matter that Santorum got a few thousand more votes or that Gingrich got 28% or that Romney wound up with about a third of the delegates available.

Well, largely doesn’t matter. Sure, each one can spin some politi-scat that it means “this” or it means “that”. It doesn’t.

What it means it that none of these candidates appeals to the very, very, very distinct segments of the non-Obama contingent in the South.

Fervent Evangelicals break hard against Romney. The lower income, lower educated, do as well. They don’t connect with him and it is unlikely they ever will.

The highly educated, highly successful urban and suburban Republican prefer Romney over the other candidates.

This three way race between the Metrosexual, the MicroSexual and the OmniSexual candidates, (Ron Paul being an isolationist leaves him master of his own domain), leaves one asking the morning after once again, “Is that all there is?”

There is much beard stroking about how Romney needs to “regroup” or that Santorum has “momentum” or that Gingrich needs to decide whether to drop out. Uh, no.

In states that have a dominant metro-suburban voter casting votes, Romney will win.

In states that have fervent faith-based folks who care deeply about social issues and tend to resent “moderates”, Santorum is going to edge out Gingrich and beat Romney.

On and on we bumble forward, state by state, inch by inch, delegate by delegate.

Santorum will never capture the hearts and minds of those who cringe at what they see as his invasion of the body snitchers, being a scold, or his schoolmarmish approach to sexual issues.

Gingrich wants to transform civilization. Here, and inter-galactically. He sees himself as the great and mighty wizard behind the curtain, pulling levers and ruling Oz. That’s inspiring to many. And, frightening to many. And, comical to many. The latter two categories make up too large a contingent to overcome. He won’t get out of the race until it’s no longer fun to pull all those levers. Or, he loses his one donor.

Then there’s Romney Dangerfield. He can’t get no respect. He’s the guy people are voting for, whose real guys are sitting on the sidelines. They want Paul Ryan, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, John Thune, ..one of the A-Teamers. He’s the “least worst” for the  none of the above crowd.

Quite a ringing endorsement.

We are going to Tampa. Still fractured, still dis-united, still with the exact same split, in the exact same manner, over and over again.

People can keep stroking their beards and try to shave reality, but it won’t change this plain fact. None of these guys can capture the other’s base before Tampa. And we will have Groundhog Day until the end of August.