JD Vance was a luxury pick.
At least, that was the political consensus in 2024: He didn’t put any swing states in play, nor would he threaten a vital, must-win Democratic voting demo — like Latinos, women, or blacks.
In fact, he didn’t change the political map at all.
Hey, Ohio and/or rust-belt white dudes were voting for Trump anyway, so why shoulder-tap Ohio’s 39-year-old junior senator? Wouldn’t the GOP get more bang-for-the-buck with a different running mate?
But Vance was more than a luxury pick: He was also a legacy pick.
At the time, I compared it to talent projection in the NFL Draft:
The basic argument comes down to ceiling versus basements. A player with a high ceiling is a kid with untapped potential who might be a superstar, but still carries developmental risk; a player with a high basement is someone who can at least be an okay backup and hopefully an acceptable starter, but might not have the physical traits to develop any further.
JD Vance was a high ceiling pick. He was selected for his upside.
Other potential VPs had much higher basements. Tim Scott and Marco Rubio, for example, could be plugged in right away and potentially put the Left on the defensive, especially with key demographics that the Democrats desperately need to win. And someone like Nikki Haley could’ve contributed ASAP by peeling away women voters. JD Vance isn’t a plug-and-play VP selection. He’s mostly unknown to the American people, which means he’ll have to build his own profile and name recognition.
And what an upside!
We saw our first glimpse of it when he utterly annihilated Kamala Harris’ “safe, experienced” pick of Gov. Tim Walz (D-Minn.) in their vice-presidential debate. It was such a thorough ass-kicking that Kamala Harris wrote in her memoir that she moaned out loud and barked advice at her TV.
Harris mentioned a "Saturday Night Live" skit after the debate that depicted Harris and her husband Doug watching the debate and spitting out wine in shock. Harris wrote that while she did not actually spit out wine while watching, "it was otherwise uncanny in its portrait of our evening."
But after Trump-Vance rolled to a landslide victory, our story began to change. Vance did what all vice presidents do: He faded into the background, ceding the limelight to the president.
The benefit of the vice presidency is that it positions the titleholder as the heir apparent. Once your boss is term-limited, all eyes are on you.
The downside is, you’re the second banana for (at least) four years, subservient to the president. You’re the supporting actor, not the superstar — the B-side to a smash-hit single — and that carries a perceptual cost.
George H. W. Bush was a World War II veteran: the Navy’s youngest pilot and an honest-to-God war hero. But after eight years as vice president, the mainstream media called him a wimp.
The combination of President Ronald Reagan’s swagger, Bush’s gentlemanly demeanor, and the stigma of the vice presidency created this “wimp” PR problem. (Until Bush was bailed out by Dan Rather’s arrogance and condescension, showing his backbone on live TV.)
Until now, Vance was being dragged down by the office, too.
The MAGAverse hasn’t seen Vice President Vance blasting Dems and brutalizing libs lately. Our Millennial messenger from Appalachia had mostly vanished from the periphery, popping up intermittently to chastise Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an infamous Oval Office meeting, or negotiating a poorly received (and since failed) Memo of Understanding with Iran.
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio was moving mountains in the Americas, becoming Trump’s most popular cabinet pick. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) was finishing the most successful two-term governorship in U.S. history. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) was battling Tucker Carlson for the soul of the conservative movement. Newer, younger MAGA superstars like Brandon Gill, Karoline Leavitt, and Anna Paulina Luna burst on the scene, rapidly building national profiles of their own.
By comparison, Vance’s post-2024 narrative was kind of boring.
But it was more than that: Vance’s youth and inexperience made him a “blank slate,” because nobody was entirely sure where, exactly, he fit in the political spectrum.
Was he a classic conservative like Ted Cruz? A libertarian like Rand Paul? An America First interventionist like Marco Rubio? An obstructionist like Thomas Massie? An in-your-face leader like Ron DeSantis? A wackaloon like Tucker Carlson?
Is he a pragmatist, a nationalist, an incrementalist, or an ideologue? (Or, perhaps, a combination of all the above?)
Usually, the vice president is considered an extension of the president — but President Trump is such a sui generis, once-in-a-millennium personality, it’s unfathomable that anyone could be the “next” Donald Trump. He’s in a category all by himself.
Even if he wanted to, Vance couldn’t imitate Trump. Nobody can.
Which put the MAGAverse in the uncomfortable position of guessing what Vance really, truly believes. He became a Rorschach inkblot test, where audiences projected their own beliefs — and, alas, their own biases — on everything Vance said and did.
And that’s a perfectly viable PR strategy, by the way. Sometimes, by keeping your big mouth closed and projecting a happy, pleasant, friendly demeanor, you sidestep landmines and build bridges of friendship. (Dolly Parton was a master at it.)
But for the strategy to work, you’ve got to stick like Velcro to the plan. You can’t waver. Because, once you start feeding breadcrumbs to one side, the strategy doesn’t just fail — it spectacularly backfires.
People then assume your breadcrumbs aren’t breadcrumbs: They’re damning evidence of a deep-rooted bias that’s bubbling to the surface.
It’s something you feel so strongly, you can’t help but reveal it. This is who you actually are.
And that scares the hell out of the other side!
There’s an internecine underway. At stake is the future of the MAGA movement. The Iran War exacerbated the fault lines, but truthfully? They were already there.
At one extreme are the war hawks, internationalists, and neocons. At the other extreme are the conspiracy-pushing, pro-Islamic non-interventionists. Somewhere in the middle are legitimate debates over Israel, foreign policy, the dangers of Islam, and how we define American exceptionalism.
When Vance began criticizing Israel, lambasting neocons, pushing the MOU, and refusing to separate himself from his “friend” Tucker Carlson, his popularity in the GOP began to plummet. In the eyes of many in the MAGAverse, he chose the wrong side — and thus failed the Rorschach test.
And suddenly, the heir apparent wasn’t so apparent.
Is Marco Rubio now the GOP frontrunner? https://t.co/3cfqqhp5qe pic.twitter.com/zGWzLEUot9
— Bloomberg (@business) February 22, 2016
🚨🇺🇸 Polymarket just put Marco Rubio ahead of JD Vance for the first time, making him the most likely man to become president in 2028.
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) June 8, 2026
Source: @Polymarket / Writer: Mhedi pic.twitter.com/YEbONdAt2w
That’s not to say Vance was unloved by the base. His verbal shish kabobing of Tim Walz was still fondly remembered, and we still gave his boss the benefit of the doubt: If he’s good enough for Trump, he’s good enough for me, I guess.
But the luster was gone. Noticeable cracks had emerged. And like it or not, the anti-Vance whisper campaign was now fully underway.
This was the backdrop of Vice President Vance’s RNC speech last night. Other than Trump, no one in America had more personally on the line.
It was Vance's 2028 audition test. If his speech was a dud, the whisper campaign would stop whispering — and start shouting.
Newsflash: Vance passed the test with flying colors.
RFK Jr. also gave a great speech, but the medium makes the message, and Kennedy’s voice, unfortunately, sounds like a lawnmower. (If RFK Jr. sounded like James Earl Jones, he’d be a helluva candidate in 2028!) And President Trump, of course, took the stage immediately afterwards, inviting comparisons between the status quo and the Next Big Thing.
On Thursday night, Vance outshone his boss, giving the better, more impressive speech.
He was charming and folksy. Family-friendly and introspective. Spontaneous and clever. And good Lord, he dissected the Democratic Party with surgical precision.
His most viral moment was how he made mincemeat of RNC protesters. Vance’s off-the-cuff response was textbook Trump:
.@VP in Dallas: "We just had a protestor interrupting us and waving the Mexican flag. Well, my friend, if you love Mexico so much, get your ass over there — I'll buy you the plane ticket." pic.twitter.com/PYkqtkLz6q
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) September 11, 2026
But for political purposes, this moment mattered more:
🚨 JUST NOW: JD Vance drops this message to Americans and young men who are pessimistic about the direction of America
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 11, 2026
"Don't give the country over to a bunch of CRAZY people because you disagree with us on a policy issue here or there!"
"Charlie Kirk had his own views. HE did… pic.twitter.com/xZ7oXTSYKs
Vance used his standing as Carlson’s friend to make an impassioned argument for GOP unity. Had he already excommunicated Carlson and his ilk, his message wouldn’t have had the same impact.
Which resets the Rorschach inkblot test: Instead of biting his tongue because he secretly agreed with Tucker Carlson, perhaps he’s biting his tongue because it’s the best way for Republicans to win.
Axios: Vance: MAGA’s Millennial Messenger for the Midterms
Support for President Trump is dropping among millennials and Gen Zers — particularly young men. Vice President Vance is in charge of getting them back in the midterms.
Why it matters: The 42-year-old Vance, the first millennial VP, capped off the GOP's two-day convention here with a direct appeal to families with young children that emphasized the "birthright" of U.S. citizens.
- Vance also sought to cast Democrats as anti-American, anti-family "crazies."
- "America belongs to those who love it. Not those who hate it," he said.
[…]
Friction point: Vance obliquely touched on the major source of the administration's unpopularity — Trump's war in Iran and the high prices it's caused — and asked undecided and unsure voters to overlook it.
- "I'm asking you to do what Charlie did: Do not throw the baby out with the bathwater."
Vance leveraged his age, family, and anti-war credibility to bridge internal divisions. He electrified MAGA’s base, welcomed back wayward voters, and gleefully filleted left-wing sacred cows.
Like James Talarico:
🔥🚨 JUST IN — JD Vance just absolutely DESTROYED Democrat James Talarico:
— The Patriot Oasis™ (@ThePatriotOasis) September 11, 2026
"I gotta say, a guy that age who is so obsessed and focused on Transgender children- I don’t know about you, but I NEVER wanna see that guy’s web browser history!"
"This Talarico guy, he won’t shut up… pic.twitter.com/mx9k3QEHQQ
And Abdul El-Sayed:
Vice President JD Vance DOG-WALKS Democratic Michigan U.S. Senate Candidate Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed: “[Abdul El-Sayed] saw me talking about my papaw… [and] asked mockingly, whether I'd be willing to bring Usha back in time to meet papaw. This is what he thinks of my… pic.twitter.com/5ey2q1fP6O
— RedWave Press (@RedWavePress) September 11, 2026
And today’s Democratic Party:
🔥🚨 BREAKING — JD Vance just went on a RAMPAGE towards the radical Anti-American Democrat Party:
— The Patriot Oasis™ (@ThePatriotOasis) September 11, 2026
"The Democrats are the party of HATERD!"
"Who the Democrats are now, my friends. They’re not just the party of a little higher taxes, maybe some dumb regulations."
"They’re not… pic.twitter.com/Xr6JyV74Df
Which led to the inevitable “JD 48” chant:
Woman in the crowd yells "JD 48"
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) September 11, 2026
The crowd then breaks out into a "48" chant pic.twitter.com/1U6I9V7GnD
That’ll wait ‘til 2028. Today, there’s a midterm election to win.
But win or lose, Vice President Vance just took an enormous step forward. His rollicking RNC speech reminded the MAGAverse what makes him such a special candidate. His voice, his message, his sensibilities: It was all unmistakably JD — in the best possible way.
The 2028 race isn’t over. You’re not gonna win the 2028 nomination with a single 2026 speech. That’s unrealistic.
There’ll be more twists, turns, trials, and tribulations. There always are.
But something politically significant just happened: Vance is looking like the legacy pick we all hoped he would be.
And that’s a big freaking deal.
Related: The $5K Check Heard Round the World: How Donald Trump Reverse Uno’d the Midterms
One Last Thing: 2026 will reach a crescendo with the midterm elections. Nothing less than the future of our country teeters in the balance.
Never before have the political battle lines been so clearly defined. Blue wave or red wall, the 2026 midterms will transform our country.
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