The Chinese spy balloon is now over Missouri and appears to be changing course, according to The War Zone. After Paula Bolyard posted the news of a possible shootdown of the balloon late Friday, there has been no official word of any military action taken against the spycraft.
The White House is claiming that the U.S. can’t shoot the balloon down because it was over “populated areas.” That’s nonsense, as the balloon’s track since Wednesday shows.
So assuming the “spy” balloon was over Montana yesterday you can use the NOAA Hysplit model to show where it was 120 hours ago (see previous tweet) but by this time tomorrow it will be somewhere in SE Missouri. I assumed 20k meters initial height used NAM WRF 12 km Mdl from 0Z. pic.twitter.com/x16lGnCbEx
— Dan Satterfield (@wildweatherdan) February 3, 2023
The area being traversed by the balloon used to be known as the “Great American Desert.” We now know it as the “High Plains.” The only creature that might be harmed by a falling balloon would be the Black Footed Ferret — the rarest mammal in North America.
I’m sure the ferrets thank the president for his forbearance.
But there are other considerations including the unpredictability of debris falling from 60,000 feet. While the chances of hitting civilians were low, the Pentagon wisely believed it was better to be safe rather than sorry.
The bottom line is that this isn’t the first time that high-altitude balloons from China have flown over the U.S.
Perhaps most interestingly, Pentagon Press Secretary Ryder and the senior U.S. defense official both said suspected Chinese high-altitude surveillance balloons have been monitored passing over the continental United States in recent years on multiple occasions. This includes instances that took place before Biden took office in 2021. Neither of them would say exactly how frequently this has occurred or provide details about any past incidents. They did say that the balloon that is currently inside U.S. airspace has been here longer than others in the past.
This all is very intriguing given a very similar response, including the scrambling of F-22 Raptors, to the appearance of another spherical balloon floating off the coast of Hawaii nearly a year ago. To date, U.S. officials do not appear to have disclosed the origin or suspected origin of that balloon. The War Zone reached out to the Pentagon to ask whether this was also a suspected Chinese surveillance asset, but was again told that no additional information could be provided at this time in response to this query. That balloon was floating off Kauai not far from a sensitive missile test site.
The balloon that flew over Hawaii a year ago looks very much like the current balloon leisurely making its way across the U.S.
Feb 2022, Air Force scrambles F-22's in Hawaii bc of a high-altitude "unmanned balloon without observable identification markings."
Seems remarkably similar to the balloon over Montana right nowhttps://t.co/qs4TObmVjk pic.twitter.com/2on54uVCAe
— Alexis De Popeville (@JohnPaulThee3rd) February 3, 2023
So why not blow the balloon out of the sky? There is valuable intelligence to be gathered about Chinese capabilities.
The senior U.S. defense official noted that not shooting down the balloon is also offering an opportunity for “tracking what abilities it could have.” Though they did not elaborate, it’s also worth noting that surveilling the craft and its payload both visually and electronically at close proximity would be critical to assessing its capabilities. If shot down prior to this, that intelligence could be degraded or lost.
Meanwhile, you do whatever you can do minimize your vulnerability in terms of intelligence it can collect. This means emission control procedures and possibly even dealing with assets that are visible if it is equipped with EO sensors. Having one of these soaking up intel…
— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) February 3, 2023
Meanwhile, you do whatever you can do minimize your vulnerability in terms of intelligence it can collect. This means emission control procedures and possibly even dealing with assets that are visible if it is equipped with EO sensors. Having one of these soaking up intel…
— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) February 3, 2023
That’s a reasonable goal. But it still doesn’t answer the question of why the U.S. has allowed a Chinese spycraft to float for several days over American airspace. Why not shoot it down the minute it crosses into U.S. territory?
Since the balloons were spotted over the U.S. during the Trump administration, any conspiracy theories about Joe Biden being in China’s pocket can be put aside. But Republicans on the Hill are going to want some answers from our military about why the Chinese are allowed to surveil us with such impunity.
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