Beginning in August, the Democrats’ fortunes began to turn more positive as fallout from the Dobbs decision generated anger among Democratic women. That anger is being translated into political enthusiasm as 13% of Democrats now say that abortion is the most important issue facing Americans.
This would indicate an uphill battle for pro-life Republican candidates in blue states. But with only 4% of Republicans believing abortion is the most important issue, abortion would appear to be a nonissue in most of the rest of the country. No matter what Democratic boosters are saying, the abortion issue is not a game changer. It may, however, keep the GOP victory margin down as some blue state Democratic House members are likely to survive as a result of increased turnout of abortion-supporting women.
For our VIPs: SPR Oil Level Hits 40-Year Low as Hurricane Season Fires Up. Thanks, Brandon.
Without a doubt, inflation and the economy are the two issues most important to the voter in 2022. And on those two issues, Joe Biden is so far underwater that it’s doubtful he could be found with an attack submarine.
Seventy-four percent say the economy is in bad shape, up from 58% in the spring after Biden took office. The GOP leads the Democrats by 16 points in trust to handle the economy overall and by 19 points in trust to handle inflation. Equally important, 84% call the economy a top issue in their vote for Congress and 76% say the same about inflation. Many fewer, 62%, call abortion a top issue.
Other issues also differentiate the parties. In addition to the economy, the Republicans can be expected to focus on crime in the campaigns’ closing weeks; they lead by 14 points in trust to handle it, and it’s highly important to 69%.
Democrats, in return, hold a wide 23-point advantage in trust to handle climate change, though it’s highly important to far fewer, 50%.
Abortion is important to far fewer voters. No matter how much energy and anger Democratic women say they have, we can all vote only once — ideally. And the same goes for climate change. If you ask a voter who thinks inflation is the most important issue whether he or she would swap lower prices for lower carbon, do you really think anyone but a crazy green would say they wanted lower carbon?
So now it really depends on where Biden stands on election day when it comes to his job approval. There’s history that can’t be ignored.
Each election has its own dynamic but in midterm elections since 1946, when a president has had more than 50% job approval, his party has lost an average of 14 seats. When the president’s approval has been less than 50% — as Biden’s is by a considerable margin now — his party has lost an average of 37 seats.
There’s one slightly better result for Biden: 40% say he’s accomplished a great deal or a good amount as president, up from 35% last fall. This usually is a tepid measure; it’s averaged 43% across four presidents in 11 previous polls since 1993.
Biden had a tolerable summer with gas prices going down and the rosy jobs picture. But as the Fed continues to raise interest rates and given there’s no sign that inflation is moderating much, if at all, the economy will not have improved enough to save the president or his party from a sound beating.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member