A new election model from Moody Analytics shows that if the economy remains healthy, Donald Trump will win the 2020 election easily.
The Moody model has been backtested to 1980 and was right each time — except for 2016 when it predicted a narrow Hillary Clinton win (who didn’t?).
The model shows the uphill climb Democrats have regardless of what current polls are saying about the race.
President Donald Trump looks likely to cruise to re-election next year under three different economic models Moody’s Analytics employed to gauge the 2020 race.
Barring anything unusual happening, the president’s Electoral College victory could easily surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count.
Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure, and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low. Should those variables hold up, the president looks set to get another four-year term.
While the economy has shown some troubling signs in the last few months, there is no downturn imminent. No wonder Democrats are hoping for a recession; impeachment isn’t working for them and an economic fall is the only thing they can hope for.
“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the paper along with Dan White, the firm’s director of government counseling and public finance research, and Bernard Yaros, assistant director and economist. “It’s about turnout.”
Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes, assuming average turnout. His chances decrease with maximum turnout on the Democratic side and increase with minimum turnout expected.
Of the three models, he does best under the “pocketbook” measure of how people feel about their finances. In that scenario, assuming average nonincumbent turnout, he gets 351 electoral votes to the generic Democrat’s 187. “Record turnout is vital to a Democratic victory,” the report states.
Democrats may be excited about 2020, as most polls have gauged, but if this impeachment nonsense keeps up, Republicans will be angry. All you have to do is look at the 2016 presidential election to see what an angry electorate can do.
An average of the three Moody models gives Trump an electoral landslide.
Note that in this model, Trump wins Minnesota and Virginia, as well as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Trump will have other advantages as well. He will have substantially more money than the Democrat. And there are going to be a lot of disappointed Democrats because their candidate failed to win the nomination. Republicans, on the other hand, are united and, for the most part, enthusiastic.
It’s not a sure thing, of course. Even if the economy is good, god knows what else is in Trump’s past the media will try to blow up into the scandal of the century. But recent history would suggest a majority of voters have stopped believing the press — devastating for democracy but good for Trump.
Meanwhile, all the Democrats have is the impeachment circus that will probably turn away more voters from their party than gain adherents.
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