Democrats have won control of the Senate, but the GOP is now very much favored to win a slim majority in the House. On Sunday night, Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) was officially declared the winner of his race. He’d been trailing a bit earlier in the week, so Republicans can breathe a sigh of relief on this one.
But one key race still has no winner. As election officials in Arizona continue to tally votes, the gubernatorial contest between Republican Kari Lake and Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs remains too close to call. Unfortunately, Lake currently trails Hobbs.
DDHQ Race Update (est. 94% in): AZ Governor
Katie Hobbs (D): 1,167,484
(50.76%)
Kari Lake (R): 1,132,562
(49.24%)Lake gained 1,264 votes from the latest drop in Pinal County (An R+39 margin from a previously R+16 county).
Follow more results here: https://t.co/AOgwtoN5Dd
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 14, 2022
Last week, Kari Lake’s campaign expressed confidence that the remaining ballots left to be counted would swing heavily Republican and that she would ultimately be declared the winner. Caroline Wren, a senior advisor to Lake, said on Thursday that there is currently “no mathematical path” for Hobbs to win.
However, while vote drops since then have favored Lake, the general consensus is that they haven’t come in by adequate margins to overcome Hobbs when all is said and done.
Looking more granularly, 71% of remaining ballots are in Republican leaning Legislative Districts. pic.twitter.com/bfV2s45AmA
— Landon Wall (@LandonWall_) November 13, 2022
The batch came in Kari Lake 54.6% – Katie Hobbs 45.4%. Kari missed her target mark by a few points, and will need to win 58% of all outstanding ballots. https://t.co/TJuiigsTJh
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) November 14, 2022
Meanwhile, Katie Hobbs appears confident that she will ultimately be declared the winner:
A statement from our campaign manager on the #AZGov results pic.twitter.com/ECGwcC3O8u
— Katie Hobbs (@katiehobbs) November 14, 2022
Does Lake have enough outstanding GOP-leaning ballots to overtake Hobbs? It’s hard to say. Has the path become more difficult? It seems that way, but some Arizona GOP voters are reporting that their ballots still haven’t been counted and find this highly suspicious.
RIDICULOUS. My vote has not been counted yet. Neither have the votes of MANY of my family members, neighbors, church goers and friends who voted for @KariLake @AbrahamHamadeh and other GOP candidates EARLY in South Phoenix. The election is FAR from over. Check your ballot status! pic.twitter.com/jiOtMfS34b
— Rev. Jarrett Barton Maupin, Jr. (@ReverendMaupin) November 14, 2022
With all of the craziness going on, the Arizona Republican Party officially accused Maricopa County of voter suppression after “Republican voters were disproportionately disenfranchised” by ballot machine problems in Maricopa County.
Others are raising questions about turnout rates on Election Day versus the vote count.
“On Election Day, Uplift tracked the hourly reported results from precincts across Maricopa County. When polls closed at 8pm MT, Uplift released its final analysis…
Republicans received 52.7% of the vote⁰“Other” received 30.7% of the vote⁰Democrats received 16.6% of the vote” pic.twitter.com/ZWpemEoiPC
— Julia 🇺🇸 (@Jules31415) November 14, 2022
Political strategist Chuck Callesto wonders how, despite a <17% turnout of Democrats on Election Day, Democrat candidates in Arizona were winning over 50% of the Election Day totals. I don’t have an answer for that.
My gut tells me that, even when a winner is declared, the race won’t be over. If Hobbs is the victor, there will be significant questions about how she conducted the elections as Secretary of State and whether there was any bias in the process that she remained in charge on and after Election Day.
Many Republicans on social media feel discouraged, believing that the steal is in to rob Lake of a victory. I don’t know what the explanation is, but I do know that what’s happening in Arizona is a joke, and no matter what happens, many will be left with their confidence in the electoral process shattered.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member