Recent Trends Must Have Pennsylvania Dems Downing Valiums

Pennsylvania remains a toss-up despite John Fetterman’s miserable debate performance. According to a Fox News poll, 51% of respondents said that the debate played a factor in their vote, versus 47% who said it did not. Fetterman still enjoys a 45% lead over Mehmet Oz’s 42% for people if they were “voting now.” For people who are going to vote or have already voted, Fetterman leads 47% to 45%. The results of the poll were released on Wednesday.

So on one hand, the race is still too close to call. But on the other hand, the Pennsylvania GOP is picking up steam and members. Just the News reports that Democrats are jumping ship for the Republican Party. Out of the 8.87 million registered voters in the Keystone State, just over 4 million are Democrats, and 3.5 million are Republicans.

But the really interesting numbers have to do with gains. Roughly 21,000 former Republicans and 27,000 “other” voters have become Democrats. But Republicans have seen a bump of 57,000 ex-Democrats and 30,000 of those “other” voters. This represents a trend: since 2008, more people have joined the GOP than the Democrats.

Of course, the numbers only matter if people actually vote. Democrats have a slight edge over Republicans in terms of engaged voters, at 3.6 million to 3.25 million. But approximately 400,000 Democrats are inactive versus 240,000 for the GOP, according to numbers from the Department of State.

If you followed all of that, congratulations. Take a break, refill your coffee, and have a donut. You deserve it. The upshot is that we are right back to where we started at the top of the piece: it’s a toss-up. Democrats still hold an edge, while Republicans are making gains. That may bode well for the future, but the question is, will it bode well for the immediate future?

Given Biden’s warning Wednesday night that not all of the votes may not be counted right away and that the results may not be available for a few days, we cannot rule out chicanery unless a race is an absolute blowout. Who knows how many “misplaced ballots” will be lurking somewhere, waiting to be found? Who knows how many complaints will be lodged against election observers over harassment at polling places? We’ll find out in less than a week.