I’ve argued over at NRO that you can’t understand events in Iran these days unless you put them in the context of the fierce power struggle within the regime for the succession to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Physical attacks against the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij–the prime instruments of repression–are taking place all over Iran, and the political war between the two men who fancy themselves the logical tyrants of the Islamic Republic–Rafsanjani and Ahmadi-Nezhad–is heating up by the hour.
On Thursday, for example, a former Cabinet member named Marashi, who happens to be Rafsanjani’s brother-in-law, called upon the Parliament (Majlis) to investigate Ahmadi-Nezhad’s counterproductive accomplishments in foreign policy, calling the president either incompetent or treacherous. I have a link from an Iranian friend, and it’s in Farsi.
It’s a dangerous game for Rafsanjani to play, since Ahmadi-Nezhad is supported by a lot of men with guns. On the other hand, Rafsanjani really has no alternative.
A great moment for us to call for regime change, don’t you think?