When the polls and prediction markets spent months forecasting a blue wave, Democrats got awfully confident about taking back Congress.
Honestly, you can understand why.
Left-wing influencers and the media spent the entire cycle hyping a Democrat blowout, and they had some ammunition. Plenty of polls pointed to a good night for the left, and history sat firmly on their side, since the party that holds the White House usually takes a beating in the midterms.
But here's the problem. A handful of experts kept warning that Republican voters don't talk to pollsters, and that turnout, not survey toplines, would decide who controls Congress.
“And turnout determines everything," pollster Frank Luntz said during a CNN interview last month.
So, what’s happening with turnout?
Republican turnout is reportedly surging across the country.
Florida Republicans are turning out at presidential-year levels.
I have minute snapshots from Florida Election Day 2024. As of the latest data pull, we are exceeding same-snapshot margins compared to 2024 - literal Presidential turnout on a midterms. And it's accelerating - in one ten minute pull, we pulled ahead of 2024 by 5,000 votes. An incredible last-minute turnaround in Florida. This is the kind of performance we need to sustain across the country. Go vote!
— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) November 3, 2026
The FL numbers are absolutely bonkers. Presidential margins in a midterm, and any Democratic advantage keeps closing with every update. If this applies to all states, we may well see a last minute turnaround - the next iron test will be Nevada. https://t.co/oYdzNnMVlO
— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) November 3, 2026
In Ohio, GOP voters are showing up.
Breaking News: Republican turnout is strong in Ohio is VERY STRONG! This is very good for us! Let's get Vivek Ramaswamy, John Husted, Eric Conroy, and Derrick Merrin a BIG WIN TODAY! 🇺🇸 https://t.co/9zFBdfvzTA
— New Mexico Man(Cyrus) (@Cyrus2036) November 3, 2026
In Nevada, the GOP is running ahead of its 2024 pace.
Republicans so far doing better than 2024 in Nevada Election Day 2024: 🔴 Republicans +1 2026: 🔴 Republicans +10 https://t.co/sKRD8jjqO4
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 3, 2026
And Arizona looks strong as Republicans gain ground faster than Democrats.
Election Day Maricopa County, Arizona 🔴 Republicans: 19,861 (44.5%) 🔵 Democrats: 10,227 (22.9%) ⚪ Other: 14,549 (32.6%) https://t.co/fyUGzk4biB
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 3, 2026
What about Texas? Also looking good.
Texas turnout so far by party lean, 10:21 AM ET Estimate, modeled from each county's past vote: 🔴 R-leaning: 55.6% 🔵 D-leaning: 44.4% 2024 final: 56.9% R / 43.1% D Trump-carried counties: 65% of their 2024 turnout. Harris-carried: 72%. Texas has no party registration. https://t.co/cTC9WPfBIw
— Spence Rogers ✟ (@SpenceRogers) November 3, 2026
Texas Governor Declares That a 'RED WAVE' is Happening in Texas Right Now. Greg Abbott says Texas has become a 'RED WALL' this election with reports of PRESIDENTIAL level turnout for The GOP - but rural Texans still need to VOTE. "If we have people in east Texas and west Texas go vote, it will be a RED WAVE, we will create a RED wall and will ensure a RED barrier for the United States of America." The first hours of early voting are already showing signs of a Republican surge in Florida, Arizona and Nevada even surpassing 2024 Presidential turnout in some areas. Democrats desperately want to flip Texas. If Trump supporters vote, it will doom Democrats from taking control of the Senate. Rural Texans need to turn out to protect the values that made the state great. There are more Republicans in Texas than Democrats, they just need to get out and Vote. Let's win this, @GregAbbott_TX
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) November 3, 2026
The prediction markets have noticed, too.
Democrats favored in most Senate swing states, but Republicans are gaining in the last couple hours Per Kalshi Senate Odds Net Change vs 7:00 am ET Florida: 🔴 R+8 Iowa: 🔴 R+6 Texas: 🔴 R+6 Maine: 🔴 R+6 Michigan: 🔴 R+4 Kansas: 🔴 R+2 Ohio: 🟡 No Change https://t.co/YzpwdPYJs0
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 3, 2026
For months, the media sold the country a story in which Republican voters had given up. The voters just wrote a different one. When conservatives refuse to let pundits and pollsters tell them the outcome in advance, they win, and they're proving it again right now.
Go vote!
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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