When the polls and prediction markets spent months forecasting a blue wave, Democrats got awfully confident about taking back Congress.

Honestly, you can understand why.

Left-wing influencers and the media spent the entire cycle hyping a Democrat blowout, and they had some ammunition. Plenty of polls pointed to a good night for the left, and history sat firmly on their side, since the party that holds the White House usually takes a beating in the midterms.

But here's the problem. A handful of experts kept warning that Republican voters don't talk to pollsters, and that turnout, not survey toplines, would decide who controls Congress.

“And turnout determines everything," pollster Frank Luntz said during a CNN interview last month.

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So, what’s happening with turnout?

Republican turnout is reportedly surging across the country.

Florida Republicans are turning out at presidential-year levels.

In Ohio, GOP voters are showing up.

In Nevada, the GOP is running ahead of its 2024 pace.

And Arizona looks strong as Republicans gain ground faster than Democrats.

What about Texas? Also looking good.

The prediction markets have noticed, too.

For months, the media sold the country a story in which Republican voters had given up. The voters just wrote a different one. When conservatives refuse to let pundits and pollsters tell them the outcome in advance, they win, and they're proving it again right now.

Go vote!