With less than a month to go before the midterms, the questionable polls keep piling up. I've been saying for a while that I think the GOP will outperform the polls this year, and a fresh report from CNN backs that up.
According to CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten, there's some incredibly good news for the GOP in both the short term and long term, which may matter more than the polls.
CNN anchor John Berman set up the segment by noting that plenty of surveys show the races slipping away from Republicans. He then asked Enten what the party could feel good about. Enten mentioned party registration in the swing states that usually decide presidential elections and compared today's margins with Election Day 2018, President Donald Trump's first midterm. Republicans have improved their standing against Democrats by four points in Arizona, five in Nevada, seven in Pennsylvania, and eight in North Carolina.
"So, when you take a look at how people are actually registering, this is not polling data, compared to where we were eight years ago, Republicans are doing considerably better in what are the swing states, at least normally in presidential elections," Enten said.
Berman pushed back with the obvious objection. That's a comparison to 2018, and the polls have been drifting toward Democrats for the past two years. So have Democrats made up any of that ground since 2024?
"In Pennsylvania, no. North Carolina, no. Nevada, no. Arizona, no," Enten replied. "There may be some tiny late gains that are going on right now, right, that I think over the last month maybe Democrats are gaining. But when you take the longer-term view versus the 2024 election in which Republicans won all of these states, Democrats are, in fact, not actually gaining ground."
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Think about that for a second. For two years, the media have told us that voters are sprinting back to the Democrat Party, and survey after survey supposedly proves it. Yet in the four states where it counts most, Republicans are gaining. Berman pointed out that Democrats have seen some upticks in recent months, and Enten agreed, with a caveat.
"There's been some ticks up, but they, in no way, blows away the Republican gains," he said.
Then came the historical context.
Enten told viewers that in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona, Republicans hold their best registration position relative to Democrats in any midterm in at least two decades.
"The bottom line is this: Republicans, right now, are in a much stronger position than they have been, not just compared to eight years ago, but over the long term as well, the relative health of the Republican Party, at least in terms of party registration, is pretty gosh darn good relative to the Democrats," Enten explained.
Florida shows where this kind of shift leads. Asked about the state's upcoming races, Enten cited Kalshi prediction markets that give Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.) a 91% chance of winning her Senate race and Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) a 76% chance in the contest for governor.
"I remember when Florida was a swing state," Enten says.
Should note the GOP is in its best position on party registration (i.e. not polls) going into a midterm in 20+ years. In total, the Dems have not gained ground since 2024 in key swing states (AZ, NV, NC, or PA). The GOP has gained big ground since Trump's 1st midterm in all 4. https://t.co/KXK7zc5dFY
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 7, 2026
These voter registration trends defy the polls. Which do you trust more? A poll is a guess about who will show up, built on assumptions about what the electorate looks like. Registration is the electorate.
Of course, none of this means Republicans will win in November. But if there was ever a sign that the polls may be based on the assumptions, this is it
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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