Something unusual is happening, and, call me crazy, but the left might already sense it. Midterm elections have been a graveyard for the president's party for most of modern history — a near-guaranteed swing of the pendulum in the opposite direction.
Republicans know better than to spike the football eight months out, but when the numbers start moving in your direction, that’s good news, and might explain why Democrats are claiming that Trump is going to steal the midterm elections. It’s like they’re preemptively casting doubt on the results.
So, it's worth asking why they’re worried.
The latest Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, conducted February 25–26 among 1,999 registered voters, shows Republicans and Democrats deadlocked at 50-50 on the generic congressional ballot. That may sound modest, but consider where things stood just five weeks earlier. In January, 54% of respondents said they'd vote Democrat if the election were held today, giving Democrats an 8-point lead. That's an 8-point swing to the GOP in a single month.
Here’s where things get more interesting: according to the poll, 54% found the following Republican message believable:
Republicans say that they are returning responsibility to government by arresting criminals, closing the borders, keeping taxes low, and lowering energy costs. We can’t go back to the Democrats who were allowing our cities and way of life to deteriorate and prices on energy and food to soar while fraud took billions and billions of dollars of their giveaway programs.
Meanwhile, just 48% of respondents found this message believable:
Democrats say we are for affordability. Free government services. Free housing and transportation. Healthcare for all. Free student loans. We have the money and can provide these services if you elect us to office, and we will bring down the billionaires.
Meanwhile, Trump’s net approval ratings are also improving.
The survey shows his net approval rating improved by three points in just one month. In the previous poll, he stood at 45% approval and 51% disapproval, a net negative of six points. In the latest results, he registers 46% approval and 49% disapproval, narrowing the gap to a net negative three. It’s a modest shift, but the trajectory is unmistakable.
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There’s still a long way to go before the midterm elections, but there are reasons for the GOP to feel confident they can hold the House and Senate.
In fact, White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair said in a recent interview that he believes Republicans "can defy history,” and he also explained why.
“First and foremost, we have a record and a clear contrast. We can point very clearly to what things were like two years ago, and the American people remember that: 8% interest rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage; now they’re under 6%. Five dollar an average gallon of gas. Now it’s under $2.50. We have real wages increasing, outpacing inflation. Joe Biden had real wages decreasing $3,000 a year, you know, with inflation far outstripping wage growth and price hikes and all of that. The Democrats gave us this economic nightmare that we inherited, and we are now turning around.”
Historically, the odds are steep. The last time the president’s party won the midterm elections was under George W. Bush in 2002, and that was the first national election after the 9/11 terror attacks. But Democrats still seem nervous about the elections. Last Saturday, Joe Biden literally accused Trump of “trying to steal the election, because he knows he can't win your vote.”
The irony is hard to miss. Democrats are crying election theft — preemptively, before a vote has been cast — at the precise moment their own polling numbers are collapsing.
