Even CNN Admits That Democrats Are in Big Trouble on This Key Issue

Democrats have made no secret of the fact that their closing argument for the 2026 midterms will center on affordability, but if sentiment about the economy improves, which the Trump administration is banking on, Democrats will need something else to run on.

It’s obvious that Democrats have been hoping that immigration enforcement and the outrage they’ve been trying to foment over it could be that issue. After a year of wall-to-wall immigration drama dominating the news cycle, they were convinced that the public would finally recoil and punish Republicans at the ballot box.

That was the bet. But that fantasy is now crashing hard into reality, as CNN's own polling analyst just handed Democrats some brutally inconvenient news.

On Thursday morning, Harry Enten, CNN's chief data analyst, walked through the numbers on immigration heading into the 2026 midterm cycle. It’s not good news for the Democrats.

"This, I think, is so important to note,” Enten said. “After all the events in Los Angeles, after all the events in Minneapolis, after all the events of the last year on immigration, can Democrats actually take advantage on this issue?”

“A look at the polling suggests actually, no, they're in a worse position — in a worse position — than they were at this point during Donald Trump's first term,” he said, before looking at the numbers, which showed that back in 2018, Democrats held roughly a six-point advantage when voters were asked which party they trusted more on immigration. Now, that edge has flipped, with Republicans holding the advantage instead. “So this whole idea that Democrats are gonna be able to take advantage of the immigration issue actually doesn't bear itself out in the polling, despite everything that's been going on,” Enten noted.

Host John Berman tried to make sense of it, and he offered that maybe voters just don't trust Democrats to do better even if they're uncomfortable with Trump's approach.

Enten confirmed exactly that. "They think Democrats will do a worse job on immigration than Republicans."

Think things couldn’t get worse? Try again. Trust in border security numbers was even more lopsided. Republicans held a 13-point advantage on border security back in 2018. That advantage has grown to 15 points, and honestly, I’m surprised it’s not more. So the issue Democrats thought might be softening for Republicans has, if anything, hardened further in the GOP's favor.

"When you put it all together, you put immigration with border security and the idea that Democrats will be able to take the ball and run away on it, the polling data suggests, no, no, no, this is actually an issue that Republicans should be more comfortable running on than Democrats," Enten said. "Democrats running on immigration may actually be to the Republicans' advantage."

Read that last line again. Democrats campaigning on immigration could actively help Republicans.

And then there's the Biden comparison. And it really gets ugly here for the left. Yes, Trump's approval rating on immigration has dipped from its peak. But Enten put it all in context. Biden's approval rating on immigration at a comparable point in his presidency stood at a dismal 34%, while Trump's stands at 45%.

That's an 11-point gap.

"You can't just look at something in isolation. You have to compare it to the alternative. And in this particular case, when you take a look at immigration, and you compare Republicans to the alternative, Democrats, this is an issue that Republicans should really like, and President Trump should like the comparison to Joe Biden."

Among other things.

🚨NEW: CNN's Harry Enten: "This whole idea that Democrats are gonna be able to take advantage of the immigration issue actually DOESN'T bear itself out in the polling — despite everything that’s been going on!"

"In fact, Democrats are in a WORSE position than they were during… pic.twitter.com/QS3DMzBPsl
— Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) February 26, 2026

In the end, for Democrats who spent the last several months convinced that immigration was finally turning into their weapon, Harry Enten threw a torrent of cold water on that pipe dream.

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