The 2026 midterms are coming fast. History suggests it won’t be a good election for the GOP, but I strongly believe that perceptions of the economy will make or break everything. After four years of crippling Bidenomics, Americans remembered that things were better under Trump and sent him back to the White House. People wanted a change, and they got one. Now they have to feel it.
The Trump administration knows this, and is staking much of its political capital on the success ofthe One Big Beautiful Bill, a sweeping economic package designed to unleash growth and restore American prosperity.
I have plenty of confidence that it can deliver. But I also think the Trump administration is making a massive mistake in the expectations game.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went on Fox Business with Larry Kudlow on Friday and boldly predicted the economy could surge by as much as 8% GDP growth. That number alone was enough to make economists sit up straight.
“I think GDP is gonna surprise on the upside,” Bessent said. “But the important thing is, it’s gonna be non-inflationary, disinflationary growth, back to the ‘90s, and we, we could have kind of a seven, 8% nominal GDP number.”
Wow, the Democrats are going to HATE this.
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) January 17, 2026
Scott Bessent confirms GDP could hit 7-8%! Explosive growth with lower inflation. Trump's back and America's economy is roaring again! pic.twitter.com/WlwO8BRagj
I don’t care who you are: That’s an ambitious forecast.
And while I have plenty of confidence in Donald Trump’s economic instincts — the man has a proven track record — it’s hard not to feel a little nervous when the administration starts putting sky-high numbers out there. Eight percent GDP growth would be tremendous, no question. But by setting expectations that high, they risk turning a strong performance into a perceived disappointment if the numbers “only” come in at 4% or 5%—both of which would still be solid.
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Trump’s team needs to remember that voters have been conditioned over decades to expect grand promises followed by excuses and delays. Presidents of both parties have done it, and both parties have paid the price for it.
From George H.W. Bush’s “read my lips, no new taxes,” to Barack Obama’s promises of $2,500 savings from Obamacare, and even Joe Biden promising that inflation would be transitory, and we all know how that worked out.
In politics, expectations are everything. If you set modest expectations for economic growth and it ends up booming, it feels like a huge win. If you promise the moon and deliver a strong but ordinary recovery, it looks like you came up short, and you’ve given the opposition ammunition.
This isn’t an issue of how the media can spin it; it’s human psychology. People judge performance relative to what they were told to expect. You set high expectations; anything short of that will disappoint.
It’s bugged me for a long time now, the way the Trump administration plays the expectations game. It would be wise to underpromise and then overdeliver. That’s how you build credibility. It’s how you earn trust, especially in a cynical age where voters look for any excuse to be disappointed.
And honestly, it’s a lesson Trump should have learned by now.
His overpromising about the release of the Epstein files during the 2024 campaign has become a lingering talking point for critics. That kind of thing sticks.
You can still believe in Trump’s ability to deliver real results while recognizing that setting expectations sky-high is a strategic mistake. A strong economy will speak for itself if given enough time. Inflation continues to ease, energy prices are stabilizing, and job creation is trending up. Those are the kinds of metrics that win elections, not wild speculation about hitting 8% GDP.
