Democrats and their allies in the legacy media spent the last few weeks hyperventilating about the possibility of flipping a deep-red congressional seat in Tennessee, hoping to send a shockwave through the Republican Party ahead of the midterms and take that momentum to victory. They truly believed they could snatch victory in a district President Donald Trump carried by 22 points just last year.
But reality came crashing down on them Tuesday night when Decision Desk HQ projected Matt Van Epps as the winner of the special election for Tennessee’s 7th congressional district around 9:10 PM ET.
Decision Desk HQ projects Matt Van Epps to win the US House special election in Tennessee's 7th congressional district.#DecisionMade: 9:06 pm ET pic.twitter.com/Uud1B74sKx
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) December 3, 2025
The Republican combat veteran defeated socialist Democrat state Rep. Aftyn Behn, a 36-year-old who the left hoped would be the face of their new southern strategy.
So much for that plan.
In fairness, this race should never have been close. The seat became vacant earlier in 2025 after Rep. Mark Green retired to pursue a job in the private sector, leaving a void in a district classified as R+10.
Normally, Republicans would sleepwalk through an election here. Yet, Democrats poured massive resources into this contest, sensing an opportunity to chip away at the razor-thin GOP House majority and validate their narrative of a building blue wave. House Majority PAC, which has deep ties to House Democratic leaders, invested $1 million in television and digital ads last month. Other left-wing groups, including Tennessee Rise PA, Planned Parenthood Votes, and Indivisible Action, also threw their weight and wallets behind Behn.
ICYMI: Here’s How the GOP Wins the Midterms
Money certainly flowed in Behn’s direction. She held a fundraising advantage over Van Epps heading into the final stretch, raising $1.2 million through November 12. That total included a staggering $1 million raised just since October 1. She entered the final weeks with $522,000 cash on hand, while Van Epps raised $993,000 and had $231,000 available. Democrats clearly thought they could buy this seat. They were wrong.
While the victory provides relief, the internal mood among House Republicans remains tense. NRCC Chair Richard Hudson predicted a Van Epps victory during a closed-door meeting with House Republicans on Tuesday morning, but he did not sugarcoat the situation.
NRCC Chair Richard Hudson told House Republicans in their closed-door meeting Tuesday morning that Republican Matt Van Epps will win the race. But he also said members need to remember special elections are special, according to four people in the room, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss the private meeting. ...
Republicans in the room for Hudson’s remarks Tuesday morning, however, did not feel much better about the state of the conference and the special election ahead of next year’s midterms.
“It was not overly comforting,” one House Republican who attended the meeting said, noting that some GOP members quietly glanced over at each other as the North Carolina congressman argued a win is a win.
President Trump even had to make a late intervention to save the seat, underscoring just how nervous the party had become in the final days. A loss here would have been catastrophic. It would have flipped a seat Republicans have held for more than four decades and put an exclamation point on the so-called blue surge. Instead, Van Epps held the line. His victory shores up the precarious Republican majority for now. Democrats will have to find another place to burn their millions, but the GOP ignores the tightness of this race at its own peril.
Want to support fearless journalism that exposes the Left and tells the stories the media won’t? PJ Media delivers the truth and holds the powerful accountable. Become a VIP member today—your support fuels our mission and unlocks exclusive content, podcasts, an ad-free experience, and more.
Use code FIGHT for 60% off. It's a great time to become a part of our movement. Join now and stand for America-first journalism!
Join the conversation as a VIP Member