I grew up in Massachusetts and now live in New York, two deep blue states that still manage to put Republicans in the governor’s mansion from time to time. Those wins never flipped the culture of either state, but they proved that voters will back competent GOP leadership when they’re fed up. New York hasn’t elected a Republican governor in decades, and that really sucks for those of use who live here. But, the 2022 race was unusually tight for this state, with Kathy Hochul winning by a a mere six points over Republican Lee Zeldin. That narrow win exposed her weaknesses, and the latest polling for 2026 reinforces just how vulnerable she remains.
PJ Media previously reported on a poll from J.L. Partners that shows Rep. Elise Stefanik trailing Gov. Hochul by just three points, with Hochul at 46% and Stefanik at 43%. The margin falls within the poll's 4.4% margin of error, making this a statistical dead heat. It’s worth noting here that J.L. Partners correctly projected Trump's popular vote and Electoral College victory over Kamala Harris in 2024, making them one of the most accurate pollsters of that election.
Of course, despite J.L. Parters’ history of accuracy, many on the left will dismiss those results. But the fact is, they aren’t the only ones showing trouble for Hochul.
A new survey from the Manhattan Institute gives Stefanik a 1-point edge over Hochul. Another Siena poll in May showed the race in a virtual tie, with Hochul clinging to a 1-point lead.
A newer Siena poll shows Stefanik has significantly narrowed Hochul's lead among independent voters in the New York gubernatorial race. Hochul now leads Stefanik by just 40-36% among independents, down from an 18-point advantage of 43-25% in September. Siena pollster Steven Greenberg reported that Hochul continues to run very strongly with Democrats, holding a 78-9% lead among party members. Stefanik has widened her lead among Republicans to 79-11%, up from 68-15% in September. It’s worth noting that despite the good numbers with independents, the poll shows Hochul with an overall 52-32% lead over Stefanik in a general election matchup… which doesn’t seem likely, considering multiple independent polls show a much closer race, and the fact that nearly half of New Yorkers, 48%, indicated they prefer to have "someone else" be governor instead of Hochul, while only 42% of New Yorkers want Hochul to be reelected.
Related: Democrats Are Totally Worried About New York
The Stefanik campaign told The Post Millennial that “weighted party registration in the poll is about 49% Democrat, 22% Republican, and 28% independent or other. In the 2022 Governor's race, turnout by party registration was about 48% Democrat, 29% Republican, and 23% unaffiliated. That means Republicans are under-represented and independents are over-represented."
The campaign added: “According to the release, the weighted party registration in the poll is about 49% Democrat, 22% Republican, and 28% independent or other. In the 2022 Governor's race, turnout by party registration was about 48% Democrat, 29% Republican, and 23% unaffiliated. That means Republicans are under-represented, and independents are over-represented compared with a real midterm electorate.”
Back in 2022, polls pointed in every direction. Some predicted a blowout while others showed a neck-and-neck fight, and the race ended up razor close. I stay grounded about polling this far out, but the numbers give me room for optimism. Stefanik has a real shot at finally sending Hochul packing, and the momentum building around her campaign suggests this year could be the one New York voters decide they’ve had enough.
