There’s a lot of attention right now on the New York City mayoral race, but while the outcome of that election appears to be inevitable, next year's gubernatorial election isn’t so much. In fact, no matter how much Democrats project confidence that Gov. Kathy Hochul will smoothly sail to reelection, there are signs that New York Democrats are secretly panicking about the race.
If you haven’t noticed, New York Democrats are tripping over themselves, clutching pearls and drafting official complaints because Rep. Elise Stefanik is suddenly—shockingly—making things a little too uncomfortable for Hochul. And for a party that repeatedly tells anyone who’ll listen that Hochul is a shoo-in, their conduct lately screams exactly the opposite.
I still can’t forget when House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told Stefanik she should run for governor.
“Here’s my political advice for Elise Stefanik: Run, Elise, run,” he said, a clumsy attempt at reverse psychology. He was clearly trying to project confidence, but the subtext was obvious: he was worried.
And he should be.
Earlier this month, a poll commissioned by Stefanik’s leadership PAC, E-PAC, found Hochul is only leading Stefanik by a razor-thin five points among likely voters, 48% to 43%.
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But it’s actually worse for Hochul than that. Once voters are briefed on the candidates’ specific positions, Stefanik not only closes the gap, but actually edges ahead, 46.4 to 45.9%. These aren’t the numbers of a so-called “safe blue” state—they’re the warning lights that the blue wall of New York is crumbling.
And you know New York Democrats are concerned about the race because they are flipping out about the poll.
Jay Jacobs, the State Democratic Party Chair, is leading the charge to drag Stefanik into court over the poll. Jacobs fired off a formal complaint to the State Board of Elections, accusing Stefanik of breaking the state’s Fair Campaign Code. The Democrats allege Stefanik not only buried the poll instead of releasing it within 48 hours (per campaign finance rules), but possibly used federal campaign cash for a state race and “forgot” to report the cost. Jacobs thundered from his press release pulpit, “Elise Stefanik is still refusing to release the details of her baked internal poll — what is she so desperate to cover up?” Of course, the more frantic the Democrats become about this supposedly irrelevant poll, the clearer it is they see an iceberg, not a speed bump, ahead.
The survey found her job performance deep underwater: 56% disapproving, a mere 39% giving her a thumbs up. More than half of likely voters strongly disapprove. And in a truly ominous detail, 59% say it’s “time for someone new.” Only a third are open to keeping her for another term. It’s a bad, bad poll for Hochul, and the Democrats’ reaction to it is proof they’re concerned.
The Democrats’ outrage over a poll isn’t about ethics—it’s about exposure. They know Hochul’s support is collapsing, and they’re terrified of what happens when the public realizes it. If Republicans can flip the New York governorship, it won’t just be a victory for Stefanik; it’ll be a seismic warning that no Democrat, not even in deep-blue New York, is safe from the voter backlash brewing across the country.
