James Carville still wants you to believe he can see the future.
During Thursday's episode of "Politics War Room," Carville and co-host Al Hunt fielded a question about what the Biden administration could have done to prepare for a Trump victory. Carville decided this was the perfect moment to unveil his crystal ball act. "I'm going to tell you what's going to happen. A Democrat is going to be elected in 2028. You know that. I know that," he announced with the kind of certainty that should make anyone who remembers last year's election cycle nervous.
He knows that? Are you scared?
Carville told listeners to "keep that in the back of your mind" and emphasized he would "bet a lot of money" on his prediction. That's rich coming from someone who epically faceplanted in 2024 with his electoral predictions.
Let’s look back, shall we? Carville didn't just predict Kamala would win; he guaranteed it. He wrote an essay for the New York Times titled "Three Reasons I'm Certain Kamala Harris Will Win."
"America, it will all be OK. Ms. Harris will be elected the next president of the United States. Of this, I am certain," he wrote.
What were his reasons? He said Donald Trump is “a repeat electoral loser” whose supposed losing streak would continue in 2024. As evidence, he cited the Democrats’ 2018 House landslide, Trump’s 2020 “loss” to Biden, and the absence of a red wave in the 2022 midterms after the Dobbs decision. Carville insisted that “abortion is on the ballot again — for president,” and that the issue would doom Trump in the swing states. What happened? Trump carried every single one of them, winning both the Electoral College and the popular vote.
After the election, Carville admitted he had failed to predict accurately. "I thought Kamala Harris would win. I was wrong," he conceded in January. He acknowledged that while Democrats could argue about margins and House performance, the most important thing was facing the loss and understanding why it happened. He attributed the results to economic factors, which was at least a more honest assessment than his pre-election bombast.
Here’s the real problem: Carville is too partisan now that he’s unwilling to make an assessment or a prediction that the left-wing base won’t like. He’s become the Jim Cramer of politics. I don’t think that’s an exaggeration. Both men have track records of making predictions with absolute conviction while accumulating an impressive collection of wrong calls.
The only thing Carville has over Cramer is his cameo in Old School.
For what it’s worth, Carville is most certainly right that Democrats will try to pack the Supreme Court the moment they get the chance.
Carville laid out his entire court-packing fantasy with remarkable specificity. The plan is that the incoming Democratic president would announce a special transition advisory committee on Supreme Court reform. This committee, staffed by what Carville called a "blue ribbon panel of distinguished jurists," would conduct a review and recommend expanding the Court from nine to thirteen justices. "They're going to recommend that the number of Supreme Court justices go from nine to 13. That's going to happen, people," Carville declared.
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In his imagined scenario, both a Democratic Senate and House would pass the legislation, and the Democratic president would sign it into law. Carville justified this power grab by claiming "they have to do an intervention so we can have a Supreme Court that the American people trust again."
But then, we didn’t need a crystal ball to know this will happen the moment Democrats get the chance. Joe Biden literally tried this when he took office — he set up a commission to study the possibility of adding seats to the court. Biden’s commission ultimately rejected the court-packing scheme, noting that any court expansion would lead to an endless cycle of court expansions for political purposes. Biden did try, though, so Carville deserves zero credit predicting that Democrats will keep pushing to do something they been trying to do for years. It's not prophecy when you're simply repeating what Democrats have already announced they want to do.
What Carville believes is educated foresight is really partisan muscle memory. Every election cycle, Democrats convince themselves a pendulum swing will save them, regardless of reality. I’m not saying a Republican will definitely win in 2028, but I am saying that Carville is talking out of the wrong opening when he says he knows Democrats will win.
Editor’s Note: The Schumer Shutdown is still ongoing, and polls are now showing Americans are increasingly blaming the Democrats for this mess, and Democrats are on the verge of caving.
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