The Democrats might want to start panicking about 2028 right now.
Yes, we have the midterms next year first, but trust me, they’ve got big problems that are hard to ignore and easy to have a laugh at … if you’re a conservative. And the key question here is whether there’s much they can do about it.
According to a new Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll, conducted by Noble Predictive Insights in early October, the presumptive front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination is none other than former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Imagine spending $1 billion in a race against Trump, losing every swing state, ending your campaign in debt, and still being the frontrunner in this kind of survey.
It makes no sense ... until you understand what this means for the Democrats.
It’s not that Kamala is surging—it’s that no one else in the Democratic Party is. The poll of 2,565 registered voters, which included 948 Democrats and 199 independents, found Kamala leading the pack with 33% of Democrats and 27% of independents naming her as their top choice for 2028. In a distant second comes California Governor Gavin Newsom, limping along at 13% and 3% with those same groups. After him, the drop is even steeper: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez clocks in at 8%, and Pete Buttigieg manages 7%. When you have to reach down to single digits to find the rest of your field, you don’t exactly have a thriving bench.
But let's be honest, she’s topping this poll because the Democrats simply have no one else. Kamala’s lead is more of a reflection of the party’s collapse into identity politics and brand loyalty than any newfound charisma or leadership ability. She remains the only black candidate in the field, drawing 54% of black voters, 40% of Southern voters, and 44% of the 18-to-29 crowd. That 54% figure might look impressive at first, but it means nearly half of black Democrats prefer someone else—or no one at all. Even among women, she just manages to double Newsom’s support (36% to his 18%). That’s hardly a show of unstoppable momentum.
Meanwhile, Newsom and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker continue to flail, desperate to break through to the national stage with their anti-Trump theatrics. The trouble is, no one’s buying what they’re selling. Newsom has been running for president for years now with no real payoff. Pritzker, with his money and swagger, can’t seem to get any traction beyond Chicago cocktail parties and buffets. This poll confirms that despite all their hustling for attention, they’re not breaking out.
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If this is the best the Democrats can do for 2028, the problem isn’t Kamala’s baggage; it’s the sheer emptiness of the Democratic bench. She’s a frontrunner not by popular demand, but by default. She’s the political equivalent of a placeholder—enough name recognition to fill the void, but not enough substance to inspire confidence.
And the donors? Don’t expect them to hand her another blank check. After her 2024 disaster, few in the Democratic donor class will want to double down on another Kamala boondoggle. They know she’s not a winner; they just can’t find anyone who looks less likely to lose. That’s the Democrats’ real nightmare—when the candidate who already lost big is still your best shot, you’ve run out of ideas, and your bench is hideous.
The 17% of Democrats who told pollsters they were “unsure” about whom to support aren’t undecided—they’re uninspired. They represent a party adrift, staring at a field that looks weaker by the week. Kamala’s early poll lead shouldn’t reassure Democrats; it should terrify them. If this is what passes for front-runner status in 2025, imagine how bleak things will look by 2028.
