Every political cycle, Democrats cling to the hope that the next election will be the one to pull their party out of the wilderness. For 2026, that hope is not just fading, it’s being crushed by reality.
This week, even CNN’s own data expert Harry Enten couldn’t paper over the grim situation facing the Democrats. When your in-house numbers guy is forced to issue a reality check on your party’s delusions, you know things are bad.
Enten’s analysis leaves little room for sugarcoating. On the generic congressional ballot — the same generic measurement that was a harbinger for Democratic blowouts in 2006 and 2018 — Democrats are limping into 2026 barely ahead by two percentage points.
“The bottom line is this,” Enten said. “Democrats are behind their 2006 and 2018 paces when it comes to the generic congressional ballot.”
According to Enten, the Democrats' slim two-point lead over Republicans in the generic ballot is a far cry from previous cycles. “In 2017, they were ahead by seven points. In 2005, they were ahead by seven points. Now they’re only ahead by two points? Their lead is less than half of what it was,” he noted.
In those prior cycles, such a lead was the writing on the wall for Republicans, signaling massive seat losses and a tidal wave in the making. Now we’re told Democrats are supposed to feel reassured about being marginally ahead, all while leaning on the same message that has turned off voters in the past.
CNN’s John Berman underscored the implications, adding, “Wave looks very different.”
Enten agreed, saying that even when you break it down district by district, “it’s the same idea.” He pointed out that in past cycles like 2005 and 2017, Democrats were leading in seat-by-seat projections. “Last time around, Democrats were ahead by 33 seats. In 2005, ahead by seven seats. What’s going on right now? It’s actually Republicans — Republicans with more net pickup chances at plus 12, according to the Cook Political Report.”
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Enten concluded that this cycle “doesn’t look anything like those wave elections back in 2006 or 2018,” and the current data shows Republicans, not Democrats, are in a stronger position as November approaches.
Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 16, 2025
Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles.
Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at this pt. pic.twitter.com/CRgXukTjz6
All of this adds up to a brutal reality for Democrats: the usual midterm dynamics that benefit the party out of power simply aren’t kicking in. Instead of riding a wave of backlash against the GOP, Democrats are stuck on their heels, trying to hold ground in a cycle where the map favors Republicans. The seat-by-seat landscape tells the real story, and it’s not pretty for the left. While Democrats scramble to protect their most fragile incumbents, Republicans are eyeing a growing list of winnable districts. For all the talk of momentum, it’s the GOP that looks poised to go on offense and potentially expand its grip on Congress.
