Make no mistake about it: The Democratic Party is facing an existential crisis that even their media allies can't spin anymore. The New York Times, the crown jewel of the liberal media establishment, just published a devastating analysis showing how the Democrats' supposed stronghold on American politics has crumbled under the MAGA movement.
While Democrats continue their tired routine of Trump-bashing and pretending to care about working Americans, the numbers tell a completely different story. The Times' analysis reveals a political earthquake that's reshaping the electoral landscape, and it's not in the Democrats' favor.
“All told, Mr. Trump has increased the Republican Party's share of the presidential vote in each election he's been on the ballot in close to half the counties in America — 1,433 in all,” the paper writes. “It is a staggering political achievement, especially considering that Mr. Trump was defeated in the second of those three races, in 2020. By contrast, Democrats have steadily expanded their vote share in those three elections in only 57 of the nation’s 3,100-plus counties.”
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In the 2024 election, six times as many counties shifted toward the GOP as toward the Democrats. While 435 counties trended more Democratic compared to 2012, 2,678 moved more Republican—by an even larger average margin of 13.3 points versus 8.8 for Democrats.
That's not just a loss; that's a political bloodbath.
The Democrats' problem? They're increasingly becoming the party of coastal elites and college-educated snobs. Meanwhile, Trump has built an unstoppable coalition that includes working-class voters across all racial and ethnic backgrounds.
The New York Times didn’t sugarcoat the situation for the Democrats.
Counties that have become steadily more Republican exist in some of the country’s bluest strongholds, including New York City, Philadelphia and Honolulu. Mr. Trump’s party is still losing in those places, but by significantly less. At the same time, Mr. Trump has driven Republican margins to dizzying new heights in the nation’s reddest bastions.
In New York, 43 out of 62 counties shifted at least 10 points more Republican in 2024 compared to 2012, cutting the statewide Democratic margin in half. The only county to consistently trend Democratic was ultra-progressive Tompkins County, home to Ithaca. Meanwhile, even deep-blue and diverse areas like the Bronx, Queens, and Brooklyn have trended Republican in multiple elections, alongside rural upstate counties like St. Lawrence and Lewis.
“We could be entering a world where the greatest predictor of voting behavior is no longer race,” Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) told the New York Times. “Donald Trump’s greatest achievement — his greatest electoral achievement — lies not in breaking the blue wall in the industrial Midwest, but in beginning to break the blue walls in states like New York, and in counties like the Bronx.”
The Democrats' old playbook is dead, and they know it. Their own pollster Ben Tulchin admitted "the math doesn't work" anymore. While they're stuck pandering to wealthy urbanites and pushing radical policies that normal Americans reject, Trump's MAGA coalition keeps growing stronger.
The only thing that could derail this momentum is if Republicans get complacent or drop the ball.
I hope they don’t.
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