Sen. Dick Durbin’s (D-Ill.) surprise announcement Wednesday that he won’t seek reelection in 2026 has sent shockwaves through the Democratic establishment, marking the quiet exit of a party heavyweight. But this news may be bigger than just Durbin and has implications that suggest bigger problems for the Democratic Party, which is currently experiencing some of its worst polling in history amid rising grassroots fury. The question is, who might be next?
It’s not lost on me that Durbin was one of the few Senate Democrats to vote to advance the Trump-backed continuing resolution (CR) last month to avert a government shutdown. Whether backlash against Durbin played any role in his decision to retire or not, I don’t know. But Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) certainly experienced significant fallout for his vote, and now his popularity is in freefall in New York. Could he be the next to call it quits?
Schumer may be the Senate Minority Leader, but he’s facing the kind of political nosedive that could soon force a decision he never expected to make: retire or risk humiliation at the hands of his own party.
CNN’s Harry Enten sounded the alarm this week, pointing to a massive collapse in Schumer’s support among Democrats in his home state of New York. “In December of 2024 — that was just a few months ago — it was 73%,” Enten said. “Look at where that number has fallen to in just a few months. It is now down to just 52%.”
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That’s a 21-point drop in record time and the lowest favorability rating Siena College has ever recorded for Schumer among New York Democrats. “It’s almost unfathomable,” Enten admitted. “I never thought I’d see the day in which just 52% of New York Democrats review Chuck Schumer favorably.”
The shift isn’t just bad news; it’s catastrophic for someone with Schumer’s profile. And the warning lights aren’t just flashing; they’re screaming.
Enten also pointed out a troubling juxtaposition. “Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s favorable rating among Democrats is considerably higher, in the 60s,” he said. That means Schumer could face a serious challenge from the left — something that would have sounded absurd just a year ago but now looks more likely by the day.
Why the collapse? According to Enten, “They, simply put, don’t like the job he’s doing as Senate Leader.”
A recent poll found that only 50% of New York Democrats think Schumer should stay in his leadership role. A whopping 48% say he shouldn’t. “This screams siren should be going off: primary challenge, primary challenge, primary challenge,” Enten warned.
🚨NEW: CNN's Harry Enten warns Chuck Schumer it's officially time to PANIC about his political future🚨
— Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) April 24, 2025
"Should Schumer stay as Senate leader? According to New York Democrats, just 50% say yes ... 48% say no. This screams — sirens should be going off. Primary challenge. Primary… pic.twitter.com/q1synv0V6y
If Durbin, the second-ranking Senate Democrat, sees the writing on the wall and is opting out of what could be a bruising political season, it’s not hard to imagine Schumer following suit, especially if the alternative is losing to a far-left primary challenger like Ocasio-Cortez.
Schumer is many things, but politically naïve isn’t one of them. He knows better than anyone that losing a primary in his own backyard would tarnish his legacy permanently and hand a trophy to the activist wing of his party. If his numbers don’t rebound, there’s a growing possibility that he chooses to walk away on his own terms rather than risk an embarrassing defeat.
