Donald Trump may have just barely returned to the presidency, but the political world is already buzzing over the future leadership of the GOP. With the 2028 presidential election looming large, attendees at CPAC 2025 provided a glimpse into their current preferences through a straw poll conducted at the event. The results were eagerly anticipated and showcased the potential successors to the Trump legacy.
The star of the show? Vice President JD Vance, who captured a staggering 61% of the 1,022 votes cast by conservative activists. This impressive lead positions him as the clear favorite among the most deeply committed, informed, and actively involved activists who will be shaping the party's direction. As Vance’s stock right now may be high, Trump himself has been cautious, noting earlier this month that it’s “too early” to endorse anyone—though he did express admiration for Vance’s capabilities, stating, “I think he’s doing a fantastic job.”
But what about the other names in the mix? Steve Bannon, Trump’s former adviser, garnered 12% of the vote for some reason. If anyone can explain that me, please let me know.
Following Bannon, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis received 7%. While he remains a recognizable figure in the Republican Party, this poll suggests he has a mountain to climb if he wants to compete with Vance’s surging popularity.
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Marco Rubio and Rep. Elise Stefanik both received just 3% support, illustrating their limited influence within this particular crowd. Meanwhile, a trio of candidates—Donald Trump Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, and Vivek Ramaswamy—each logged 2%, showing a degree of recognition but not enough backing to be taken seriously as frontrunners. Arkansas Governor Sarah Sanders, Florida Senator Rick Scott, and Nikki Haley managed a mere 1% each, which speaks volumes about their current standing among CPAC goers.
But if the straw poll is any indicator, JD Vance's dominance reveals he may well be the candidate to beat. Possibly. After all, his position as vice president typically gives candidates a significant edge in presidential races.
But, I wouldn't necessarily count anyone else out yet. Why? From where I sit, we can’t ignore the parallels between Vance’s momentum and Kamala Harris’s similarly strong polling among Democrats for her party’s nomination in 2028. Does anyone really think the party will nominate her again in 2028 after her disastrous showing in swing states during the 2024 election? I wouldn’t bet on it. But, she has the name recognition that no other Democrat can compete with right now. But, trust me, Kamala Harris doesn’t stand a chance.
Now, in fairness, Vance is a significantly better candidate than Kamala ever has been or ever will be. It’s clear that his blend of charisma and conservative values resonates well with the party's base. I’m sure he’d do well in a GOP primary in 2028, but he won’t run away with it like Trump did in 2024—unless Trump does ultimately endorse him.
While JD Vance’s lead in the straw poll indicates strong support now, it’s essential to remember that the dynamics of the race are, unlike gender, fluid. With three years until the primaries, many developments could change the landscape. But for now, it looks like JD Vance is positioning himself as the guy to beat. Buckle up, folks; the race for the heart and soul of the Republican Party is just getting started.
