Once again, Joe Biden has claimed that he thinks he would have beaten Trump had he stayed in the race.
“It’s presumptuous to say that, but I think yes,” Biden told USA Today.
CNN’s chief data analyst, Harry Enten, completely debunked that fantasy.
“Joe Biden in his exit interview with USA Today claims that he could have beaten Donald Trump had he stayed in the race,” Enten said Wednesday. “So this begs the question: could Biden have won the 2024 election had he stayed in the race? Truthfully, I categorize his statement as flat-out bonkers.”
Let’s start with the basics. Biden’s polling numbers during his final stretch as a candidate in 2024 weren’t just bad — they were catastrophic.
“It's not just that Trump was ahead,” Enten explained. “He was ahead by a lot in these key battleground states, again, when Biden dropped out of the race.”
Enten said that in critical battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Biden trailed Trump by margins of three to five points. It wasn’t just the Rust Belt where Biden was struggling: in Sunbelt states like Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada, Trump’s lead ballooned to five or six points.
“My goodness gracious,” Enten exclaimed, pointing to CNN’s electoral map from before Biden dropped out, which showed Trump winning the election easily.
Recommended: Jim Acosta Got Destroyed on CNN Over Jan. 6
“Of course, this is just one point in time,’ Enten conceded. “I know that's what Joe Biden would like to argue. So let's look at the entire 2024 campaign… Biden led Trump in 2024 when Biden was still in the race — get this — zero, nada, no days. No days was Biden ahead of Donald Trump.”
So, Biden wasn’t just trailing Trump — he was in a political freefall.
The historical precedent for a Biden comeback was equally bleak. By Election Day, Biden’s net approval rating sat at a stunning -19 points. Enten hammered home the significance of that number, noting that there were “Zero of six incumbents reelected with a negative net approval rating.” In other words, no incumbent president has ever overcome such unpopularity to secure reelection. Biden’s numbers weren’t just bad; they were historically catastrophic.
Related: Biden Finally Sits Down for Another Interview, Really Shouldn't Have
Enten’s analysis was unrelenting. He didn’t just dismiss Biden’s claim; he obliterated it with cold, hard facts. “The bottom line is this: Joe Biden was behind. He had always been behind and he most likely would have stayed behind,” he said.
Based on the polling data, I categorize Biden's statement that he could have beaten Trump as "flat out bonkers."
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) January 8, 2025
Biden was well behind Trump when he dropped out. Biden never led in all of 2024. And no incumbent president who was anywhere near as unpopular as Biden has ever won. pic.twitter.com/lGk9h8pygU
CNN is a notoriously left-wing network, though Enten is a pretty straight shooter when it comes to the data. His assessment is spot on, and it proves that Joe Biden is making himself look silly by claiming he thinks he could have won.
Except for one thing: I don’t think Joe Biden actually believes he would have won.
During a November episode of “Pod Save America,” former Obama staffers Jon Favreau and Tommy Vietor revealed that the Biden campaign’s internal polling had shown Donald Trump potentially winning 400 electoral votes. This alarming data, however, was deliberately kept under wraps as Biden’s team publicly insisted he was the strongest candidate to take on Trump.
So why is Biden pushing this blatant lie? Because he sees his presidential legacy as being the only Democrat who could beat Trump.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member