Two days left in this election, and the suspense is getting more intense. Especially after the release of Ann Selzer's latest Des Moines Register poll of Iowa, which showed Kamala ahead in the state by three points. Selzer's polls have a pretty solid track record, and if Kamala is leading in Iowa, even within the margin of error, the state must be in play, and if the state is in play, it stands to reason that Kamala will be performing better in the midwest battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Right?
Right?
Well, in theory, yes, though many are pointing out the poll seems a bit fishy.
But, let's forget about that for a second.
If the Harris-Walz campaign believed that Kamala is competitive in Iowa, we'd see signs. There would be a last-minute rally planned for the state.
While one might think such a thing would be impossible to pull off so quickly, it's been done before. In 2004, two surprise polls suggested that George W. Bush was narrowly ahead there, prompting the Bush-Cheney campaign to send Vice President Dick Cheney to the Aloha State the Sunday before Election Day.
Related: Is This The Biggest Suppression Poll in History?
It was certainly a long shot; after all, the last time a Republican had carried the state was with Ronald Reagan in 1984.
"Vice President Cheney, an orange-and-gold lei around his neck, made a personal pitch for Hawaii's four electoral votes late Sunday by flying 3,225 miles overnight from New Mexico to Waikiki Beach and asking for them," USA Today reported at the time.
"I was in the neighborhood, so I thought I'd drop by and say 'Aloha,' " he quipped to the delight of some 7,000 enthusiastic supporters at a midnight rally who waved flags, pom-poms and signs in tribute and booed lustily at the mere mention of Democrat John Kerry's name.
"This is a great crowd," Cheney said as his nearly every line was cheered and every joke drew big guffaws.
Those here were glad to see a vice president visit their remote Pacific island state. They stood in line for hours on a humid Halloween night to get into the Honolulu Convention Center. And when Cheney started speaking, their cheers and chants of "Four More Years" and "USA! USA " interrupted the speech more than he wanted
"Control yourselves ... if you guys don't behave the president will never let me come back here again," he jokingly warned when the spirted audience participation began to compete with his speech.
Believe it or not, polls of Hawaii were showing the race as too close to call, which is why "Cheney decided Thursday to add it to his tight schedule in hope of punching a hole in what has long been a Democratic stronghold in presidential races."
"It doesn't matter which party you belong to or which party you voted for in the past, we're asking for your support," Cheney said.
In response to the polling, the Kerry-Edwards campaign sent John Kerry’s daughter there just a day before Cheney’s visit. Ultimately, Kerry did win the state comfortably, though his margin was half of Al Gore’s four years prior. Still, the polls were taken seriously enough for the Kerry campaign to go on the defensive at the eleventh hour—and for the Bush campaign to make a last-minute push.
At the moment, there's no indication the Harris-Walz campaign is going to Iowa to boost their chances there, nor is the Trump campaign, at this point, planning a last-minute rally in Iowa.
Here are today’s campaign stops…
— kevin smith (@kevin_smith45) November 3, 2024
Notice anything? pic.twitter.com/nwejoWoGCH
No campaign schedules I can find from either campaign show Iowa is on their radar. Which tells you neither campaign seems to think much of Ann Selzer's poll.
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