Every election cycle brings its “inevitable” candidate, the figure propped up as a future president well before the race has truly begun. This time, Democrats are beginning to whisper that Gov. Gavin Newsom is the one. It’s no doubt that he’s going to run for president in 2028, but is he really the new frontrunner, and even if he is, does it matter?
CNN’s senior data reporter Harry Enten says Newsom’s recent strategy appears to be paying off, especially among voters who know him best. Speaking on CNN, Enten said, “Yeah, I absolutely think it’s showing signs of working. And let’s take a look at the voters who know Gavin Newsom best, those voters out in California, those California Democrats.”
Enten highlighted a dramatic rise in support for Newsom as a potential presidential candidate. “California Democrats on Newsom for governor, you go back to 2023, just 35% wanted him to run for president. Look at the percentage now who are excited for a run for president for Gavin Newsom. What is that? That’s a 40-point climb. My goodness gracious. A rising tide of support for Gavin Newsom.”
ICYMI: This Must Be Why Liberal Women Are Bonkers
He also noted that Newsom’s backing in California now outpaces that of other prominent Democrats in their home states. “He’s getting a higher percentage of the vote than Kamala Harris in her home state. He is beating the former vice president, who, of course, was the Democratic nominee in 2024. As I said, a rising tide of support for the California governor.”
Discussing the significance of home-state polling, Enten explained, “Why is it so important? Because I want you to take a look. It’s one of those benchmarks, the home state polling for presidential candidates. If they can’t win the primary in their home state, they ain’t going to win anywhere.” He added that historically, nominees have always led in their home states early on. “Winning California is not tantamount to winning the nomination, but it is one of those stepping stones that you have to make it to if you, in fact, want to win the nomination historically. And of course, in California, it has the most delegates out of any of the states that, of course, take part in the Democratic primary.”
Enten also looked at Newsom’s national standing, according to prediction markets. “Back on June 1st, before all this strategy, before all this confrontation with Donald Trump, you saw Gavin Newsom, 11%, AOC at 10, Buttigieg at eight. Look at where Gavin Newsom has shot up to now, 27%. Now is the clear frontrunner, not a 50% plus, but still the clear front runner, at least according to prediction markets. What we’re seeing in California isn’t staying in California, at least at this particular point.”
BREAKING: CNN Senior Data Analyst Harry Enten just dropped new polling that shows Gavin Newsom surging as he continues to beat Donald Trump like a drum. Let’s go. pic.twitter.com/c8FYDuIIZb
— Democratic Wins Media (@DemocraticWins) August 22, 2025
But Newsom may not want to get too excited yet. Just last December, a poll showed Kamala Harris leading the pack for the 2028 Democratic nomination with 41% support among likely Democratic voters, while Newsom trailed at a mere 8%. Even then, it was clear that these numbers reflected name recognition more than genuine enthusiasm.
Those illusions have since faded, and, as expected, Kamala began to slip in the polls. She hasn't done anything dramatically wrong—it’s just that Newsom is getting all the press right now, and she’s not. Yet like Kamala’s earlier surge, Newsom’s rise owes much to increased visibility and growing name recognition, suggesting that his apparent momentum may be more fragile than it seems.
Trust me, Newsom shouldn't get too excited yet.
