Kamala Harris’s political rise was always built on sand, not stone. She flamed out as a presidential candidate and was added to the Biden ticket not for her record or leadership, but because she checked the right identity politics boxes. The Democratic establishment hoped her race and gender would energize key constituencies and bring some novelty to an uninspired campaign—but even that cynical calculation couldn’t save her from becoming the most unpopular vice president in polling history.
Nevertheless, after being coronated the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee in 2024 after Joe Biden dropped out, then losing every single swing state to Donald Trump, she fancies herself a contender for the 2028 Democratic Party nomination, and for a while, polls even suggested she was favored.
However, things have changed. The latest polling numbers confirm what I suspected would happen: Kamala Harris is slipping, and fast. Her support is eroding not because of a sudden shift in her policies or a dramatic misstep, but because the thin veneer of celebrity that once buoyed her is wearing off. The American people are finally seeing past the glossy magazine covers and carefully curated sound bites. They’re realizing that behind the name, there’s precious little substance.
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Back in December, a poll showed Kamala Harris leading the pack for the 2028 Democratic nomination, with 41% support among likely Democrat voters. The next closest contender, Gavin Newsom, trailed far behind at just 8%. At the time, I noted that the numbers were driven more by name recognition than genuine enthusiasm. Yes, the Democrat bench is notoriously shallow, and in a party fixated on identity politics, there’s still a lingering obsession with electing the first woman of color as president, but it was only a matter of time before the illusion of her viability started to collapse.
A new Emerson poll puts Pete Buttigieg on top of the Democratic field with 16% support, followed by Kamala at 13%, Newsom with 12%, and then Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro tied at 7%. The poll itself is essentially meaningless, as it is way too early, and a plurality of voters, 23%, are still undecided. But the one thing the poll does prove is that Kamala’s star is fading fast.
NATIONAL POLL
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) June 27, 2025
2028 Hypothetical Democratic Primary
Buttigieg 16%
Harris 13%
Newsom 12%
Shapiro 7%
AOC 7%
Sanders 5%
2028 Hypothetical GOP Primary
Vance 46%
Rubio 12%
DeSantis 9%
RFK Jr. 5%https://t.co/puBx84OlJv pic.twitter.com/w8OvGzuZ7A
This was never a surprise—it was always inevitable. Kamala Harris was a hollow product of media hype and a Democratic machine desperate for a politically convenient figurehead. Now, as the party stumbles through its identity crisis, the cracks in her carefully constructed image are impossible to ignore. But name ID can only take you so far.
There’s a reason recent reports say Kamala Harris is eyeing a run for governor of California. Sources close to her say she’s seriously weighing the idea, with one insider noting the prospect has put “a glimmer in her eyes.” It’s not hard to see why. Plenty of voices around her are pushing the idea, calling it her best — maybe only — path to staying politically relevant. I suspect her team knows she’s no longer seen as a viable presidential contender, and they’re scrambling for a soft landing. According to reports, Kamala plans to take time off in July to “reflect on the next step in her political career.”
I know we are all super excited to find out what her decision is.
