Is This The Biggest Suppression Poll in History?

I warned you about suppression polls, and the mother of all suppression polls appears to have just dropped.

And it's not even from a swing state.

The latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll just dropped, and it claims that Kamala Harris has a three-point lead in Iowa.

"Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory," the Des Moines Register reports. "A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states."

The results follow a September Iowa Poll that showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll showing him with an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden, who was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time.  

“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has abandoned his independent presidential campaign to support Trump but remains on the Iowa ballot, gets 3% of the vote. That’s down from 6% in September and 9% in June.  

Fewer than 1% say they would vote for Libertarian presidential candidate Chase Oliver, 1% would vote for someone else, 3% aren’t sure and 2% don’t want to say for whom they already cast a ballot.  

It's worth noting that an Emerson College poll out of Iowa was released on Saturday as well, and it had Trump ahead nine points. Trump has led in every poll out of Iowa against either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. Yet, this poll is making a huge splash. Why? Ann Selzer is notorious for being extremely accurate and has a fairly solid track record for polling in Iowa. While Iowa is not a big state (it has just six Electoral College votes), the poll's result has implications for other Midwestern states like, you guessed it, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

Many on the right were blasting the poll on social media.

Let's see if @DecisionDeskHQ changes their forecast because of the Selzer Poll.

Ofc, I'm being facetious. https://t.co/lw69KPzrkZ

— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) November 2, 2024

IOWA early voting - by the years

🔵 2020: D+12
🔵 2022: D+18
🟡 2024: Tie

🟥 GOP shift of 12 points from 2020

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024

HARRIS GAINED 30 POINTS WITH SENIORS IN THE IOWA POLL FROM THE BIDEN 2020 POLL????

Bro.

— On Point Politics (@onpointpolitics) November 2, 2024

Also voter registration has swung from R + 0.5 in 2020 to R + 6 in 2024 — more than 5 percent swing — in Iowa. Also early vote in Iowa is a net TWELVE percent swing from Dems to GOP. (GOP up 6, Dems down 6). https://t.co/Z2Rlib6as2 pic.twitter.com/RSP2z1KeFw

— Matthew Boyle (@mboyle1) November 2, 2024

Mathematically, this result should be at least a Trump+7, the same as their 2016 and 2020 polls. Same crossover.

Ann Selzer is throwing away her reputation for a suppression poll. I’ll delete my channel if this result is even within seven points of reality. pic.twitter.com/fhaDMa0h2b

— Red Eagle Politics (@RedEaglePatriot) November 2, 2024

This will go down as the worst Selzer poll in history. The 2024 early voting shows Republicans ahead in Iowa compared to a 12 point deficit in 2020 (when Trump still won big in Iowa). Iowa is only getting redder. https://t.co/cUuLuiz22T pic.twitter.com/TJHUCOrpU5

— 🇺🇸 (@FreeStateWill) November 2, 2024

Selzer is a good pollster, but she not infallible.

She was nearly off by 8 in 2008, said Kerry would win in 2004.

In primaries, she had Sanders winning the Dem primary here in 2020, Trump winning in 2016, and Romney winning in 2012

Polls don’t vote, people do. Go vote.

— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) November 2, 2024

Iowa Republicans are leading in early voting for the first time in decades, and have increased our voter registration advantage by 130,000+.

President Trump will win Iowa if we vote and turnout our friends. Let’s prove the Des Moines Register wrong again!

— Kim Reynolds (@KimReynoldsIA) November 3, 2024

The real question is whether Kamala will hold a rally in Iowa before Election Day. If she doesn't, not even her campaign is taking the poll seriously.