2020’s Most Accurate Pollster Released a New Poll... And It Is Weird

AtlasIntel, known for its accurate national polling in 2020, recently released a new set of numbers for the 2024 race. And boy, are they a doozy.

According to the poll, Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris nationally by three points, with Trump at 50.7% and Harris at 47.6% with a full field. 

In a head-to-head match-up, Trump leads 50.8% to Kamala’s 48.1%

HEAD-TO-HEAD SCENARIO

The time series for the scenario that includes only Trump and Harris reinforces this stability, with minimal fluctuations for both candidates since Harris entered the race. pic.twitter.com/CQrV1nsGY9

— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) October 19, 2024

At first glance, this is huge news for Donald Trump in the final weeks of the campaign. A lead like this in the national popular is widely seen as translating into a stunning Electoral College victory for him.

According to Nate Silver, a 2-3 point lead nationally for Trump would translate to a 100% chance of victory. 

According to AtlasIntel's latest poll, Trump has a 2-3 point lead nationally. According to Nate Silver's Electoral College bias chart, that translates to a 100% chance of victory. pic.twitter.com/NEKvuE5sYk

— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) October 19, 2024

The Electoral College outcome should look something like this:

#NEW 2024 election forecast based on most accurate poll of 2020

Electoral college:
🔴 Trump: 323 🏆
🔵 Harris: 215

Popular vote:
🔴 Trump: 50.7% (+3.1)
🔵 Harris: 47.6%

Battleground margins:
🔵 ME: Harris+2.5
🔵 VA: Harris+1.8
🔵 NH: Harris+0.8
🔴 MN: Trump+1.4
🔴 MI:… pic.twitter.com/xqi3hSWxPU

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 19, 2024

However, that’s not what their swing state polling shows. In fact, when you look closer at the state-by-state results, there are some serious questions about the reliability of these numbers.

The main issue lies in the disconnect between Trump’s national lead and the battleground state data. If Trump truly has a two- to three-point edge across the country, he should be performing significantly better in swing states than this poll suggests. 

📊 ATLAS POLLS - SWING STATES

The latest Atlas polls in key battleground states show Kamala Harris leading by a narrow margin in North Carolina, while Donald Trump leads in Georgia. pic.twitter.com/EonYsuj2aL

— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) October 19, 2024

Instead, the poll shows Harris holding onto narrow leads in several key battlegrounds, like North Carolina and Wisconsin. It’s unlikely that any GOP candidate could have a solid national lead without also sweeping or dominating in these critical states. 

Things get even more puzzling when you dive deeper into the specific state results. The poll shows Trump up by 2.5 points in Pennsylvania, 2.9 in Michigan, and 1.7 in Georgia in head-to-head matchups, while Harris leads by slim margins in states like Arizona and North Carolina. These numbers don’t quite add up. For one, it seems unlikely that Georgia would poll to the right of North Carolina and to the left of Michigan and Pennsylvania. 

Another strange finding is that Trump’s largest leads are in Michigan and Pennsylvania. A strong lead in these states would logically bode better for him in Wisconsin, where AtlasIntel shows Kamala slightly ahead.

I’m just finding it hard to believe that Trump will perform better in Pennsylvania and Michigan than in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.

But here’s the scary part of this: While Trump technically has the edge in the state-by-state numbers, if these results pan out, that would translate into a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. While a tie is theoretically possible in presidential elections, it’s literally never happened. 

Still, according to AtlasIntel, Trump has the edge. 

ELECTORAL COLLEGE PROJECTION

Based on these results, Trump currently has an advantage in the Electoral College, with 253 votes compared to 226 for Harris. The narrow margins in Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina leave 59 electoral votes still in play. pic.twitter.com/81MOlNJxkL

— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) October 19, 2024

Ultimately, this poll shows that the race is far from settled, but it also highlights how volatile and unpredictable the 2024 election continues to be. If Trump is truly leading nationally, we should see more consistent and coherent results in the swing states. For now, though, it seems like we’re left with more questions than answers, especially when it comes to the electoral map.