Is Another Democrat-Held Senate Seat on the Verge of Flipping?

Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.) is one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats this cycle. The polls have been all over the place with some polls showing Casey up as much as nine points. But recent polling suggests that his Republican challenger, Dave McCormick, may have the momentum in the final weeks of the campaign.

Recent polling shows the race really tight. The latest Emerson College poll has Casey up two points, as does the latest poll from Atlas Intel, while Trafalgar has him up a point. These are all within the margin of error.

Sentinel Action Fund has released a new poll from OnMessage Inc. showing a tight race in both the presidential and Senate races. The poll shows Trump and Harris tied at 47% each and has Casey just ahead of McCormick at 45% to 44%, well within the margin of error.

Jessica Anderson, President of the Sentinel Action Fund, emphasized the importance of Pennsylvania in determining control of the White House and Senate. In a statement that PJ Media received, she said, “Control of both the White House and the Senate majority will likely be decided by voters in Pennsylvania, and Sentinel Action Fund’s new polling shows Republicans are in a strong position heading into November.” Anderson highlighted the critical nature of independent voters, noting their potential to sway the election in favor of Trump and McCormick.

Of course, in a tight election, the ground game is key, and getting low-propensity voters to the polls is a must. 

Anderson pointed out that the Sentinel Action Fund, alongside partners like the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Keystone Renewal PAC, has been working tirelessly to enhance election accessibility. They have introduced new election tools and tactics aimed at encouraging mail-in and early, in-person voting. 

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And we’ve seen results. The number of Republicans requesting mail-in ballots has more than doubled compared to 2020, with nearly 120,000 Republicans joining the permanent vote-by-mail list this year—one-third of whom are low-propensity voters.

Anderson highlighted the contrast in voting behaviors, explaining that in 2020, for every 100 Democrats who used mail-in voting, only 35 Republicans did. “In 2024, that number is currently 42 GOP voters for every 100 Democrats,” she noted. 

I’ve noticed some on the right seeing these early voting numbers in various states as proof that Trump will outperform his 2020 margins. While that is certainly a possibility, I still suspect that this is simply a return to pre-pandemic norms and that Democrat voters are just planning to return to voting on Election Day.

Anderson is nevertheless confident that things are looking good for the GOP in Pennsylvania. "Elections are won on the margins, and this progress, contrasted by the falling voter registration trends among Democrats in Pennsylvania, is a clear indication that we've made important gains to increase Republican turnout in 2024," she said. “Ultimately, this poll shows that the new GOTV strategy to embrace tools like mail-in and early, in-person voting is working. In Pennsylvania, Republicans are going into Election Day with bigger momentum and more votes than ever before, having ensured that a record number of low-frequency voters on the Right cast their ballots during the early voting period."