While Trump appears to have momentum in the final weeks of the campaign and there has been some promising polling over the past week, Kamala still has small leads in the national average and some battleground state averages. The polls are too close for comfort for either campaign, frankly, and I've been seeing a lot of effort lately from those on the right to look for positive signs. There is one sign that sounds great for Trump, but I urge you not to read too much into it.
Many people are excited to learn that recent vote-by-mail data in some key battleground states looks very promising for the Republican Party.
"Vote-by-mail data in three key states shows the edge Democrats enjoyed in 2020 has plummeted, something one expert said is a great sign for Republicans and former President Donald Trump," reports Fox News. According to an analysis from DecisionDesk HQ, the Democrats' edge in vote-by-mail requests has shrunk significantly.
Jimmy Keady, the founder and president of JLK Political Strategies, argues that it's "great news that Republicans are starting to early vote," and for sure, it is. I've been saying for a while now that as much as I hate early voting, when the Democrats embraced it and Republicans did not, it gave the Democrats an advantage that made it harder to compete with them on Election Day. When your voters vote early, it frees up more campaign resources for getting out the vote and focusing on low-propensity voters on Election Day.
"I’m sure voters complain all the time about text messages, about getting mail, about getting robocalls to go vote," Keady said. "Campaigns are now sophisticated enough that once you go vote, those stop… once a voter goes to vote, and those stop, that allows resource allocation from that voter to another voter."
Good news, right? Sure. There’s no reason for Republican voters and Trump supporters to hesitate in taking advantage of the system that Democrats have exploited for years. Too often, we lose because we refuse to play by the same rules. Yes, mail-in voting isn’t the most secure method, and I completely understand the skepticism surrounding it. However, if we don’t adapt to the system, we risk losing even more elections, and if we lose, we can't hope to abolish it. By voting early, you ensure your vote is counted and you empower the campaign to focus on mobilizing low-propensity voters.
Related: Should Trump Make a Play for New York?
It’s a strategic move that can truly make a difference — and it may be doing that. Fox News says that the data shows that "the Democratic lead in vote-by-mail requests has shrunk by over 5% in Florida, nearly 15% in North Carolina and over 35% in Pennsylvania."
Florida is less interesting to me than North Carolina and Pennsylvania since it is no longer a swing state, and while these trends are a good sign for Trump, they don't by any means point to an assured victory in November.
Look, these trends are, without a doubt, a good sign, but let's not forget, this isn't 2020 when the pandemic made it easy for Democrats to scare their voters into banking their votes before Election Day. Clearly, that's a major factor in the early vote gap closing.
It should also not be overlooked that Kamala Harris has a significant fundraising advantage over Trump, and her campaign will use those resources for a massive ground game on Election Day.
So, don't interpret the early voting data as a sign Trump has this election locked up.
