We need to have a serious conversation about New York.
Last week Donald Trump held a rally in New York, which prompted a lot of people to wonder why. If you ask him, he is competitive in the state, telling rally-goers that the reason he was there was that "we are going to win New York.”
He added, “That’s the first time in many, many years that a Republican can honestly say it, and we’re going to do it."
Let's look at the evidence and answer the question if Trump can win New York.
In 2020, Joe Biden beat Trump by 23 points in the state. and in 2022, Gov. Kathy Hochul narrowly won reelection in a race that was a lot tighter than it should have been in such a blue state. It's perhaps even more stunning that the latest Siena poll showed he has higher approval than Hochul. This is remarkable, and it certainly boosts Trump's argument.
The other bright spot for Trump is that according to the same poll, Trump only trails Kamala by 12-13 points in New York.
NEW YORK IS IN PLAY, new poll finds.
— Election Time (@ElectionTime_) September 22, 2024
2024 Election in New York
🟦Harris 52% (+12)
🟥Trump 40%
A state Biden won by 23%, New York is becoming increasingly competitive. Harris will likely pull off the worst Democratic performance in the Empire State since 1988.
Siena College |… pic.twitter.com/H19YP5zM1h
Before I go any further, let me state for the record that despite Trump's improvement in New York over his 2020 performance, New York is not, as the account above says, in play.
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“New York remains solidly ‘blue’ but perhaps not as deep blue as it has been in the last several presidential cycles. In the six presidential elections this century, Democrats have carried New York by at least 18 points, and at least 22 points in five of the six. President Biden won here by 23 points in 2020,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said. “With less than seven weeks till election day, Harris leads Trump head-to-head by 13 points, little changed from 14 points last month, and by 12 points in a multi-candidate race, unchanged from August."
A 12-point Harris lead in New York doesn't put the state in play — far from it. The real issue here is that if Trump is only trailing by 12 in a stronghold like New York, where he lost by more than 20 points in 2020, then Kamala is in serious trouble in other states that aren't nearly as deep blue like Minnesota, Michigan, and Virginia — states that I've previously pointed out appear to be competitive.
If Trump is going to target any states, it won't be New York. While it might sound good for him to claim that New York is in play, spending money there would be a waste. If Trump wants to expand his map, he should focus on lighter blue states, but honestly, he needs to make sure he's got Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania first. Remember, he made the same promise about New York being competitive in 2020, and it wasn't even close.
Maybe New York is slowly shifting, but I’m skeptical. Still, with the latest Trump-Harris polling and Hochul’s close reelection in 2022, I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility down the road.
