Election Day is getting closer, and the polls are all over the place. Since the debate, we've been seeing a number of (frankly suspicious) polls show a boost for Kamala, both nationally and in battleground states. Whether those hold, we'll see, but states that are must-wins for her aren't looking like sure things.
Earlier this month, I reported that it seems like Kamala Harris has a "Pennsylvania problem" as Democrats in the state were sounding the alarm that she's not doing as well there as the polls suggest. Once again, we have Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) sounding the alarm about her state.
Dingell had been a lonely voice as she warned her party about Hillary Clinton’s struggles in Michigan in 2016 against Trump. And said she was still “worried” about Harris’ standing: “We’re a purple state,” she told us. “We’re tied. I don’t care what anybody else says.”
Dozens of Democratic lawmakers watched the Biden-Trump debate with horror and later called on the president to end his reelection bid. Since then, Democrats have seen a surge of enthusiasm for Harris, and many in the party hope the energy translates down-ballot.
Harris currently has a one-point lead in the RealClearPolitics average for Michigan. She's not only underperforming Joe Biden's polling here four years ago, but she hasn't gotten a significant debate bounce — at least, not yet. Considering the way Trump's support has been underestimated in past polling, this is way too close for comfort for Kamala. Especially in light of which demographic is helping Trump in this state.
According to an Insider Advantage poll conducted after the debate, Trump not only has a one-point lead in Michigan but also leads among independents by five points.
Recommended: The One Question I Keep Asking About Trump
“The race remains extremely competitive both in Michigan and likely all of the battleground states,” pollster Matt Towery told the New York Post. He also argued that “the debate had little or no impact on the contest, particularly among independent voters, in this particular state.”
The same poll found that African Americans are buoying Trump: “The poll also showed a slightly higher amount of support for Trump among African-Americans (around 20%), which may be an aberration, or a reflection of higher African-American numbers seen in recent national surveys such as The New York Times survey.”
If Trump can boost his black support to 20%, up from the 12% he received in 2020, it would be a game-changer. However, Towery warns that this surge might be limited to Michigan and may not have a significant impact in this specific state. “Michigan’s African-American vote, while not insignificant, is half that of swing states such as Georgia, so the elevated numbers, if reduced to past historical levels, would not change the basic tie within the margins," Towery says. "I suspect that for various reasons unique to Michigan in this cycle, the African-American numbers are fairly accurate, at least for this stage in the contest.”
Kamala's path to the presidency is extremely narrow without Pennsylvania, and is virtually nonexistent if she also loses Michigan.
