As the 2024 election approaches, the spotlight is increasingly being focused on Pennsylvania, a state that experts widely agree is most likely to determine the outcome of the presidential race. And Kamala Harris may have a real problem there.
Journalist Mark Halperin has been exploring the current dynamics in Pennsylvania, reaching out to national strategists and state experts. The findings are revealing.
“If that's true and Harris loses Pennsylvania, she’ll almost certainly not win,” Halperin explains. “There are mathematical ways for her to win. Some of them go beyond mathematics, but very tough for her to win if she doesn’t win Pennsylvania.”
This perspective is shared by knowledgeable Democrats who are familiar with the state’s political landscape. They expressed concern that Kamala isn’t well positioned to win Pennsylvania.
“I talked to two people today, Democrats who know the state very well, and they both said that they thought Harris not only was behind in Pennsylvania today, but they thought she was likely to lose the state.”
“They didn't rule out that she could win it,” Halperin continued. “But they thought it was unlikely. And if you believe that, what these people believe, and if you believe that — well, my source does — that her chances of winning Pennsylvania are quite low, you can't make her the favorite, and you almost can't even say this race is a toss-up because Harris without Pennsylvania is not in a competitive competition.”
This jibes with Nate Silver’s recent election projection models that show Harris’s chances dwindling due to her position in Pennsylvania. Despite Harris leading in some polls, Silver’s model gives Trump a better chance of winning the election largely because recent polling gives him the advantage. As of Tuesday, Trump's chances of winning Pennsylvania are 57% to Kamala's 43%. This may not be a huge advantage, but it nevertheless explains why Trump is leading in Silver's model. Kamala can win Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin and still lose the election if Trump wins Pennsylvania.
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For Harris, the crucial question is whether she can turn the tide in Pennsylvania. As Halperin notes, if she cannot secure a victory in this key state, her campaign strategy must shift. “She can’t win [just] one Sun Belt state because none of the four Sun Belt states have as many electoral votes as Pennsylvania. So, she’d need a couple of them, and it’s got to be at least one of the eastern of the two Sun Belt states in order to pull this off.”
On Pennsylvania, "I talked to two people today, Democrats who know the state very well,” says @MarkHalperin. “They both said that they thought Harris was not only behind in Pennsylvania, but they thought she was likely to lose the state ... And if you believe what these people… pic.twitter.com/nWu0Z3yrHf
— 2WAY (@2waytvapp) September 4, 2024
And Harris may be in even more trouble because recent polling from Michigan has shown a tightly contested race. Trump has small leads in two locally conducted polls. Michigan was looking good for Trump before Joe Biden dropped out, and it looks like things may be resetting to pre-debate numbers. But if Trump wins Pennsylvania, Michigan's outcome would be largely irrelevant.
