Do you remember when Joe Biden dropped out of the race when Trump made significant gains in several traditionally blue states?
Unfortunately, when Kamala Harris took over as the Democratic frontrunner, the polls indicated that Trump's momentum in these states stalled. Suddenly, states like Maine, Virginia, New Hampshire, and even Minnesota, which appeared to be close, were no longer in play.
Especially Minnesota, after Kamala picked the state's governor, Tim Walz, as her running mate.
Except Minnesota doesn't appear to be off the table.
The New York Post reports that a new MinnPost-Embold Research poll suggests that Minnesota may, in fact, be an electoral battleground. Their findings reveal "the narrowest gap" yet in any Minnesota survey between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, thanks to independent voters breaking for Trump.
Harris leads by just over 4 points, 48.8% to 44.6%, which is an even narrower margin than the 5-point lead she had in a poll a Minnesota TV station released two weeks ago.
A big part of why Trump is so close in a state with a D+7 registration advantage: Independent voters are rallying to him by nearly a 2-to-1 ratio.
Forty percent of those polled say they back the former president, while only 23% support Harris.
Trump has been competitive in Minnesota before, of course; in 2016, Hillary Clinton eked out a victory by fewer than 45,000 votes. In that election, nearly 9% of voters backed other candidates, with Libertarian Gary Johnson leading the field of also-rans with almost 4%.
Other states like Alaska, Texas, and Florida have been labeled potential pickups for Kamala Harris despite a polling deficit greater than four points. If Democrats believe these states could be in play—or are in play—then objectively speaking, Minnesota could also emerge as a surprise battleground in November.
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And why is that? Why didn't having Walz on the ticket take the state off the table completely?
According to the Post, the reason is that Tim Walz’s approval ratings aren’t exactly stellar. He's just barely above water, so he's not providing the boost Harris needs for a blowout victory. He's not even one close to Biden’s 7-point victory in 2020.
Harris, as expected, dominates in Minnesota’s largest population centers. In the Twin Cities, Trump garners just 21% of the vote, with 73% in Minneapolis and St. Paul supporting Harris. However, the state is solidly Trump territory outside of the metro areas. Trump leads by less than a point in the seven counties surrounding the Twin Cities. But in Greater Minnesota, Trump commands 61% support, outpacing Harris by 28 points.
Earlier this month, the Post reported that only 52% of Minnesota voters view Walz as an excellent or good running mate, while 34% consider him a poor choice. Walz faces particular challenges among men, with 50% disapproving, and voters under 35, where 51% view him unfavorably.
It's hard to say if picking Walz is hurting Kamala in Minnesota, but it definitely isn't helping her. And you can't help but wonder if she's kicking herself for not picking Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
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