If you’ve been following the recent polling, you know that Kamala's honeymoon is over. Donald Trump is making a comeback in both national match-ups and in battleground state polling. Trump has a lead in the betting markets and is either gaining or ahead in various forecast models. What’s happening here? Well, I’ll tell you.
When I look at the polls, betting markets, and forecast models, it’s very clear to me why Democrats are starting to panic. The race seems to be reverting to where it was before Joe Biden’s disastrous debate with Trump. The debate made things really bad for Biden, but they weren’t great before he imploded either.
Sure, the race was close, but Trump was favored to win, with polls showing that he only needed to flip one key blue-wall state to clinch the election, while Kamala Harris will need to sweep all three. That appears to be where the race is settling back to now.
In fact, according to the latest edition of Nate Silver’s election model, Trump is favored to win all seven of the battleground states, and Trump has a 64.4% chance of winning the election, compared to Kamala Harris’s 35.3% chance.
🚨 BREAKING - Trump GAINS AGAIN in Nate Silver's election model
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 9, 2024
WIN ODDS:
🔴 Trump: 64.4% (+29.1)
🔵 Harris: 35.3%
TRUMP SWING STATE ODDS:
🔴 WISCONSIN: 53.4%
🔴 MICHIGAN: 54.9%
🔴 NEVADA: 60.8%
🔴 PENNSYLVANIA: 64.9%
🔴 GEORGIA: 68.9%
🔴 NORTH CAROLINA: 76.2%
🔴 ARIZONA: 76.6%… pic.twitter.com/4Kbvf7Jtsp
Meanwhile, CNN anchor Boris Sanchez recently highlighted polling showing Donald Trump performing well with black and Hispanic voters—two traditionally left-leaning demographics. Sanchez called it "welcome news" for Trump.
CNN's Boris Sanchez breaks down the "welcome news" for Donald Trump pic.twitter.com/q8kl4IgerL
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) September 9, 2024
This is the kind of stuff that was happening before the Trump-Biden debate. And now, here were are: The candidate on top of the ticket has changed, but the race is reseting to what it had been before. Kamala didn’t really change those dynamics. Why? Part of the reason is that the fundamentals dictating this race haven’t changed. The second is reason that nobody actually likes Kamala Harris, and her star was always going to inevitably fade.
Let’s not forget that she’s the candidate Democrats are stuck with because Biden endorsed her after he dropped out, forcing the party to rally behind her when they really wanted an open process for choosing a new candidate. If you buy into the so-called enthusiasm for Harris, you’re fooling yourself.
We've seen this before.
Remember, Democrats didn’t care about Joe Biden either. When Obama picked him as his running mate in 2008, Biden went from being a long-serving senator rejected by his party in the primaries to the vice president, riding on the coattails of Obama’s popularity. Biden’s eventual run for president was more about Obama-era nostalgia than any real enthusiasm for him. In fact, Biden's narrow "victory" in 2020 was essentially decided by just 50,000 votes across three battleground states, aided by widespread mail-in voting.
Related: Even CNN Is Panicking About About Kamala’s Slide in the Polls
Now that the honeymoon is over, Harris will be forced to defend not only the Biden-Harris administration’s shaky record but also her own problematic tenure as a senator and California attorney general.
Good luck with that.
The way Democrats pushed Biden aside for 2024, blackmailing him into stepping down, shows how little they cared about him. The same is true for Kamala Harris. They’ll present a unified front for her now, but if she loses, they’ll wash their hands of her.
