Last week, two polls revealed that the Virginia election is a tight race within the margin of error. The Roanoke College poll showed Kamala Harris leading Trump by just three points, a finding echoed by a Quantus poll with the same narrow margin.
Virginia, a traditionally blue state that last went Republican in the 2004 presidential election, was looking like a potential Trump pickup before Biden dropped out, however conventional wisdom was that with Kamala Harris topping the ticket, Virginia was no longer in play. That's clearly not true.
Is another blue state that looked good for Trump before Biden dropped out still in play?
Maybe.
According to local media, Kamala Harris will be holding a campaign event in New Hampshire on Wednesday.
"New Hampshire may not be in the top tier of swing states in the 2024 election, but Granite Staters are still poised to get some attention this week from one of the presidential candidates," reports WMUR, an ABC affiliate in Manchester, N.H.. "News 9 has learned that Vice President Kamala Harris will travel to New Hampshire on Wednesday for a campaign event. Details have not yet been made public."
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The report notes that the visit "will mark the first visit by Harris to New Hampshire since the spring of 2021, an event in Concord that included strict pandemic protocols involved in many gatherings at that time."
There aren't any public polls showing Trump beating Harris (yet), so we have to ask why Kamala is going to New Hampshire.
Well, it could be that the campaign is genuinely worried about the Granite State because of their own internal polling. Just last week, Chauncey McLean, the president of the pro-Harris Super PAC Future Forward, warned Democrats that public polling may be a bit too optimistic about Kamala's position.
“Our numbers are much less rosy than what you’re seeing in the public,” he admitted, suggesting that there are underlying concerns that many in the party might be downplaying. This sentiment is echoed by other Democratic pollsters, who recognize that Donald Trump still holds significant advantages that could potentially shift the race in his favor.
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Now consider the fact that in the latest Emerson College poll, released at the end of July, Harris had a mere four-point lead over Trump in a head-to-head matchup.
That was before Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out.
Oh, and Joe Biden won the state by more than seven points in 2020. So, Kamala's visit to New Hampshire could be a sign that the campaign is worried about what they're seeing on the ground there.
Consideri the fact that New Hampshire was shifting towards toss-up territory before Biden dropped out, and now ask yourself why Kamala is going to a state with just four Electoral College votes.
The answer is that those four electoral votes could play a crucial role in Trump’s path to victory.
Is this why Kamala Harris is going to New Hampshire this week for a campaign event? pic.twitter.com/gZgxaDAMok
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) September 1, 2024
As you can see from the map above, if Trump were to win New Hampshire, he could win the entire election without winning Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania.
In other words, Trump's map may be expanding again.
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