Kamala Harris's bounce in the polls may be coming to an end, but there's no doubt that putting her at the top of the ticket has changed the dynamics of the race and made it closer. Kamala has a lead in the RCP national average right now. It's a small lead within the margin of error, but it's enough to get Democrats excited and energized. But the president of a Kamala Super PAC is warning Democrats not to believe the polls.
It's easy to see why Democrats are feeling elated right now, and Trump supporters might feel moderately discouraged. The race went from a landslide victory for Trump to a metaphorical coin flip once Democrats booted Joe Biden from the ballot.
"Our numbers are much less rosy than what you're seeing in the public," Chauncey McLean, the president of Future Forward, warned Democrats on Monday at an event that the University of Chicago Institute of Politics hosted.
And he likely knows what she's talking about. "Future Forward has created a massive polling operation that created and tested some 500 digital and television ads for Biden and some 200 for Harris," reports Reuters. "They have talked to some 375,000 Americans in the weeks after Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee on July 22."
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According to McLean, young voters of color have primarily driven Harris' surge in support after Biden's exit, which has revitalized Democratic hopes in Sunbelt states like Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina — states that were largely considered lost in the waning days of Biden's campaign.
"She has multiple paths," McLean observes, highlighting the seven states now in play, a stark contrast to the situation with Biden on the ticket. In addition to the Sunbelt states, the other key battlegrounds include Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
McLean emphasized that according to Future Forward's analysis, Pennsylvania remains the most critical state in this election, and it is currently a "coin flip" based on current polling. He pointed out that for Harris to secure the presidency, she must win at least one of three pivotal states: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, or Georgia.
However, McLean also cautioned that Harris has not yet fully reassembled the coalition of black, Hispanic, and young voters that helped Biden win in 2020.
But perhaps the biggest problem for Harris is that, according to McClean, their polling shows that voters want more detailed policy analysis from her. Considering how badly the launch of her new economic policy went, this is an ominous sign.
McLean also described the race as "tight as a tick" across the board, and that's how Trump supporters need to treat this election.
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Look, it was great when polls showed that Trump was headed for a landslide victory, but I think it was lulling us into a false sense of confidence. Regardless of what the public polls say, we have to treat this like a tight race that can go either way. It doesn't matter if Kamala is up a couple of points, whether the race is tied, or if Trump looks ahead. This election is too important to take for granted.
