It took little time for damaging leaks about Tim Walz to come out after Kamala Harris chose him as her running mate, but the party rallied behind him, even in the face of damning accusations of stolen valor and other lies about his background being exposed. But something tells me that Kamala Harris may be second-guessing picking Walz now.
According to a new poll by Wick Insights for 2WAY, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a dead heat, each garnering 49% support. In a full ballot matchup, Trump edges out Harris by a slim margin, 48% to 47%, with minor candidates like Oliver and Stein barely making a small but consequential dent. This tight race underscores a significant problem for Harris: despite her high-profile position, she’s struggling to secure a decisive lead in a state that is widely accepted to be pivotal in the election. Whoever wins Pennsylvania will likely win the election.
📊 PENNSYLVANIA poll by Wick Insights for @2waytvapp
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 30, 2024
🟦 Harris: 49%
🟥 Trump: 49%
—
Full Ballot
🟥 Trump: 48%
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟪 Oliver: 1%
🟩 Stein: 1%
——
Senate
🟦 Casey (inc): 48%
🟥 McCormick: 46%
——
#197 (1.4/3.0) | 1,607 LV | 8/27-29 pic.twitter.com/qtkJpdai1g
Mark Halperin had a number of pollsters join him on 2WAY to discuss the poll, and one of the fascinating crosstabs that were discussed by Anne Selzer was that Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro would have been a gamechanger for Kamala Harris in the state.
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According to the poll, had Harris picked Josh Shapiro to join her ticket, she'd be leading by seven points in Pennsylvania—effectively taking the state out of reach for Trump.
Scrub to about 23 minutes into this video to see Selzer explain this.
This is why Republicans were ecstatic when Kamala selected Walz. And her selection of Walz could not only doom her presidential campaign, but it could make a huge difference in the battle for control of the U.S. Senate. According to the Wick poll, incumbent Democrat Bob Casey has a marginal lead of 48% over Republican challenger David McCormick, who trails just two points behind him at 46%.
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When there is a tie in both the presidential and Senate races, it is a clear warning sign for Harris. Seeing as we're now seeing her honeymoon bounce fading, if the trend continues, it suggests that her campaign might be faltering, especially if she cannot gain ground in such a crucial state. If Kamala Harris loses Pennsylvania, and Casey is defeated in the Senate, her selection of Tim Walz will likely be seen as a major contributing factor, if not the decisive factor.
According to some reports, Kamala didn't particularly care for the fact that Shapiro seemed "too ambitious." Maybe that was just a cover story, and antisemitism was the real reason. Whatever the reason is, it may cost Democrats the presidency.
The mainstream media was quick to mock the selection of J.D. Vance as his running mate and created a phony narrative that Trump might replace him on the ticket. Well, it looks more like Kamala's selection of Tim Walz was the real fumble, and I'd be willing to bet there are quite a few people in the campaign who wish they could get a do-over.
