As the dust continues to settle from the initial excitement of Kamala Harris's nomination and the Democratic National Convention, Democrats are now likely to start wondering if they made the right choice.
Why? Because the polls that had liberal pundits celebrating just weeks ago are now painting a very different picture. Kamala's post-nomination surge is fizzling out, and the latest battleground state polling continues to deliver some good news for Donald Trump.
Earlier this week, Nate Silver's election projection model saw Trump surging ahead for the first time in weeks. On August 14, Kamala Harris had a 56.7% chance of winning, with Donald Trump trailing at 42.7%. However, on August 29, Trump's odds had surged, giving him a 52.4% chance, while Harris's chances dropped to 47.3%—a significant shift in Trump's favor over the two-week period.
In the latest forecast from Nate Silver, Donald Trump holds a 53.1% chance of winning the election, while Kamala Harris trails with 46.6%. Trump continues to have the advantage in key swing states, with the odds showing him with a 52-48% advantage in Pennsylvania, 53-47% in Nevada, and even stronger positions in Arizona (62-38%), Georgia (64-36%), and North Carolina (66-34%). Harris remains competitive in Wisconsin and Michigan, where the odds of her winning are 55-45% in both states.
#Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 30, 2024
🟥 Trump: 53.1%
🟦 Harris: 46.6%
——
Swing States: chance of winning
Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump 52-48%
Nevada - 🔴 Trump 53-47%
Arizona - 🔴 Trump 62-38%
Georgia - 🔴 Trump 64-36%
North Carolina - 🔴 Trump 66-34%
Wisconsin - 🔵… https://t.co/o6kEYBvXHQ pic.twitter.com/nL9ZWHc9kr
"Kamala Harris’s lead in national polls shrunk from 3.8 points to 3.3 — although with a big exception in Michigan, she had a pretty good day in state polls," Silver wrote on his Substack. "The model is making a convention bounce adjustment to Harris’s numbers; if she holds her current standing for another week or two, she’ll begin to move up in the forecast again."
"Still, the tight polls in Pennsylvania are a worry for the vice president," Silver added.
I suspect a big part of the reason why Trump's odds are surging is that the polls are showing a shift in Trump's direction.
Nate Silver's tracking of state and national polling shows that they are most shifting back toward Trump. pic.twitter.com/HVTmwYOzd1
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) August 31, 2024
Nate Silver's polling averages are, in his own words, a "little fancy," as they adjust for a variety of factors. They also give more weight to reliable polls and use national and state polls to inform each other. Silver has a lot of faith in his model, which, historically, has been biased in favor of the Democrat candidate. He did, after all, predict Hillary would win in 2016.
This is still no time to get cocky. This election will be close, and if Democrats win in November, we’ll be looking at record inflation, a national debt the size of a mushroom cloud, wide-open borders, more violence nationwide, and increased radicalization of K-12 and higher education.
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