The Left Is Going to Freak Out Over Nate Silver's Latest Election Model

Did you hear that scream? Liberals far and wide are no doubt freaking out right now because the election they thought they had in the bag after the Democratic Party crowned Kamala Harris as its nominee, which sent a jolt of enthusiasm in their party, is now slipping away.

Kamala's honeymoon bounce is now on a downward trajectory, and a slew of battleground state polling is looking really good for Donald Trump. But perhaps even more devastating for the Democrats is that Nate Silver's famous election projection model has Trump ahead for the first time in weeks.

#Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning)

August 14
🟦 Harris: 56.7%
🟥 Trump: 42.7%
.
August 29
🟥 Trump: 52.4%
🟦 Harris: 47.3%
——
Swing States: chance of winning

Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump 52-48%
Nevada - 🔴 Trump 52-48%
Arizona - 🔴 Trump 60-40%
Georgia - 🔴 Trump… https://t.co/sYNPuTSk3q pic.twitter.com/RX8BHgcu0U

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 29, 2024

That is a nearly ten-point swing in Trump's favor in the projection model in just a couple of weeks. Even Silver is trying to calm down his leftist readers.

"Although we wouldn’t advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way — it’s not a big difference — this wasn’t a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3," he wrote. "There’s one big reason for that — Pennsylvania, which is the tipping-point state more than one-third of the time and where it’s been quite a while since we’ve seen a poll showing Harris leading (including two new polls today)."

He continued:

The model is also applying a convention bounce adjustment to Harris’s recent numbers, who has made gains in national polls, and you could argue about whether that’s the right assumption. But the bottom line is that the model has the Electoral College/popular vote gap opening up again, a concern for Harris all along. There’s now a 17 percent chance she wins the popular vote but not the Electoral College, the model estimates.

“As I’ve explained, the honeymoon will be a manifestation of the wall-to-wall coverage Harris receives from the mainstream media,” Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio wrote in a memo to the campaign last month. “The coverage will be largely positive and will certainly energize Democrats and some other parts of their coalition at least in the short term.”

For Our VIPs: The Kamala Crash in the Polls Will Come

“Obviously, the situation we find ourselves in today is totally uncharted territory and has no modern historical parallel,” he continued. “But there are some things that haven’t changed. The fundamentals of the race stay the same. Before long, Harris’ ‘honeymoon' will end and voters will refocus on her role as Biden’s partner and co-pilot. So, while the public polls may change in the short run and she may consolidate a bit more of the Democrat base, Harris can’t change who she is or what she’s done."

That’s exactly what is happening. There’s a reason why Kamala is trying to get out of debating Trump. There’s a reason why Kamala is adopting Trump’s positions on key issues. There’s a reason why Kamala is finally conducting her first “interview” on a friendly network, with a friendly interviewer, with her running mate to babysit her. There’s a reason why the liberal media is raising the alarm about COVID again, pushing for pandemic protocols to be put in place again.

This is still no time to get cocky. This election will be close, and if Democrats win in November, we’ll be looking at record inflation, a national debt the size of a mushroom cloud, wide-open borders, more violence nationwide, and increased radicalization of K-12 and higher education. 

You can make a difference by becoming a VIP member. With your help, we can expose the Left and get the word out to as many Americans as possible. Sign up here and use the promo code SAVEAMERICA for 50% off.