There's been a lot of talk about how the polls have tightened since Joe Biden dropped out of the race, and now that various national polls show Kamala ahead the mainstream media has been pushing the narrative that Kamala has multiple paths to 270 Electoral College votes and Trump's paths are fewer. I'm here to tell you that you are being gaslit. It's true. And I'll prove it to you.
You'll remember that when Joe Biden bowed out, it looked like Donald Trump was on track for a landslide, with traditionally solid blue states suddenly becoming battlegrounds. Minnesota, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Maine were nearing or already were in toss-up territory. Heck, even typically safe Democratic states like New Jersey and New York were becoming a concern for Democrats as polls tightened.
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Biden's exit injected fresh energy into the Democratic base, and many of those states were quickly pulled back from the brink. But, new polling out of Virginia shows that it is still very much in play.
First, I point you to a Roanoke College poll from last week, which showed Kamala Harris up a mere three points over Trump.
2024 Virginia GE:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 20, 2024
Harris 47% (+3)
Trump 44%
.
Harris 45% (+3)
Trump 42%
Kennedy 6%
West 2%
Oliver 2%
Stein 0%
.@RoanokeCollege, 691 LV, 8/12-16
To say this poll is a disaster for Kamala Harris is an understatement. If Kamala Harris is polling only three points ahead of Trump in a blue state during the peak of her honeymoon period, that's a real problem for her. For some context, Joe Biden won Virginia by just over 11 points in 2020 and led in the Roanoke College poll four years ago by 14 points.
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Oh, but this is just one poll! Right? You can't make judgments based on one poll!
Very true. So, here's another poll that was released this week that also shows Harris up by just three points in Virginia.
2024 Virginia GE:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 25, 2024
Harris 49% (+3)
Trump 46%
.@QPollsandnews, 629 RV, 8/20-22https://t.co/NEk4VapmX9
Virginia is a blue state that last voted Republican in a presidential election in 2024. Before Biden dropped out, it looked like Trump was on track to win the state based on how the polls were shifting, and I was convinced that Kamala topping the ticket would take it out of play. These two polls show that even with Biden out of the race, the state is very much in play.
I'll still want to see more polling here, but these results do have me wondering something. If Virginia is this close in a Trump/Kamala match-up, then it seems likely that Trump is performing better in traditional battleground states than some recent polls suggest.
One thing I do know is that if there really was a huge jolt of enthusiasm and support for Kamala Harris, then Virginia wouldn't be within the margin of error in two separate polls.
Keep a close on Virginia, folks. It's closer than we're being led to believe, and Trump could win it.
