It looks like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. really did rain on Kamala Harris's parade.
Pollster Frank Luntz says that Kennedy Jr.'s endorsement of Donald Trump in the 2024 election could be the deciding factor in Trump's bid to defeat Vice President Kamala Harris in November.
Speaking to Leland Vittert on NewsNation, Luntz noted that while RFK Jr.'s influence has waned since President Joe Biden exited the race, his support still holds enough weight to potentially tip the scales in Trump's favor.
“It’s probably worth about 1% for Trump, and that 1% could be everything if it’s in all the swing states,” Luntz explained. “In the end, the reason why Kennedy was strong—10%, 12%, even as high as 14%—is because he was taking votes away from Joe Biden. Joe Biden is gone. Kamala Harris has replaced him, and his vote collapsed down to about 4% or 5%. And what’s left is a Trump vote.”
Related: Has Kamala Harris Lost The New York Times Now?
“Some of them are simply not going to participate in November,” he added. “Roughly 2 to 1, the ones who are remaining will vote for Trump over Harris. And that’s worth a single percent. And a single percent can make the difference in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.”
Pollster Frank Luntz says that RFK Jr. endorsing Trump could “make the difference” in swing states and propel Trump to victory.
— Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) August 24, 2024
He adds that the media would have treated the endorsement dramatically different if he endorsed Kamala Harris and he would have been regarded as a… pic.twitter.com/bJD09aYUs7
Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio similarly argued that RFK Jr.'s endorsement would be a good thing for Trump in the swing states.
Fabrizio, a leading figure in his field, released a memo this week analyzing data from seven crucial swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The memo revealed that RFK Jr. is pulling in 3-5% of the vote in each of these states.
"With the exit of RFK Jr. from the race and his endorsement of President Trump, there will undoubtedly be a great deal of speculation of what it means and who it will help. I've seen the Harris folks already trying to spin that it won't impact the race," he wrote. "Well, the data speaks for itself. The table below is from our most recent round of battleground state surveys. As you can clearly see, in every single state RFK Jr.'s vote breaks for President Trump."
Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio argues that RFK Jr.’s departure from the race + endorsement “is good news” for Trump.
— Shelby Talcott (@ShelbyTalcott) August 23, 2024
“In every single state RFK Jr’s vote breaks for President Trump,” he writes in a new memo: pic.twitter.com/2hfMfXgdwK
“To put these numbers into perspective, the net vote gained in a state like Arizona based on just a 2020 turnout model would be over 41,000 votes, nearly four times Biden’s winning margin. Or in Georgia the net gain would be over 19,000 votes, nearly twice Biden’s margin,” he continued. “So, when you hear or see the Harris team and/or the Democrats try and spin otherwise, now that the data clearly paints a different picture. This is good news for President Trump and his campaign – plain and simple.”
This is why you are seeing leftists flipping out on social media.
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