While the media narrative the past few days has been hyping the new enthusiasm behind Kamala Harris, not everyone in the Democratic Party believes she can win. Since Joe Biden's departure from the race, there have been a lot of questions about Kamala's viability in the general election. But the question I have is whether her own campaign believes that she can win. I'm not so sure.
Without a doubt, Kamala isn't the Democratic Party savior the party is making her out to be. It wasn't all that long ago that insiders were calling on Biden to drop her from the ticket because she was hurting his chances. There's a prevailing theory that Democrats know that Harris can't win and she's just a sacrificial lamb. I wouldn't doubt it.
Meanwhile, Barack Obama hasn't endorsed her and wants party leaders to create a process for choosing an alternative. Nancy Pelosi has endorsed Kamala but reportedly has expressed doubts about her behind closed doors.
As for her campaign, they have to put up a good front, but do they really believe she can win?
I point you to a campaign memo from the Harris campaign.
Written by Jen O’Malley Dillon, who previously identified as the Biden campaign chair but has since transitioned to Harris's campaign, the memo claims that Harris is "in a strong position to win," and insists that "[w]ith a popular message, a strong record on the issues that matter most to swing voters, multiple pathways to 270 electoral voters, and unprecedented enthusiasm on her side, the Vice President is in a strong position to take on Donald Trump and win in 104 days."
The memo borrows from the Biden campaign's previous strategy of linking Donald Trump to Project 2025, which was basically an act of desperation when all other tactics failed to change the trajectory of the campaign. For the Harris campaign to continue with that message is pretty sad. Even more troubling is that less than two weeks after Trump was nearly assassinated, the campaign is still claiming that he is a "threat to our democracy."
Related: HUGE: Kamala Harris Receives Bipartisan Condemnation For Her Handling of the Border
As Rebecca Downs over at our sister site Townhall notes, the memo cites several polls that don't exactly exactly look all that great for Kamala.
"The memo mentions the Quinnipiac poll repeatedly, which is a curious decision," she writes. "The poll shows Trump leads Harris by 49-47 percent in a head-to-head matchup. With third-party candidates on the ballot, Trump leads Harris by 45-41 percent, with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. enjoying 6 percent support. Trump also has an advantage over Harris with Independents, with 55-41 percent support." The poll also shows Trump leading Harris among young voters by 19 points.
The Harris campaign memo highlights that she is leading Trump by 54 points among black voters. However, this figure loses some of its luster when compared to the 92%-8% margin the Biden-Harris ticket won black voters in 2020, according to Pew Research.
The memo also cites 2022 midterm election polling as it tries to make the case that abortion will be a major factor in this election. Why would the campaign cite 2022 polling, not 2024 polling? Because 2024 polling has repeatedly shown that abortion is not a top issue for voters. What voters in 2024 are more concerned about are immigration and the economy.
When you dig deep into the memo, it becomes clear that it relies a lot on cherrypicked polls that aren't even that flattering. Whoever compiled all the data must have worked really hard to find what they needed to paint Kamala in a positive light.
It goes without saying that Republicans shouldn't get complacent. It may take a few weeks to really see how this race has changed. That said. I'm not convinced the newly formed Harris campaign is as confident as it is presenting itself to be.
