Recent reports suggest that pressure on Joe Biden to drop out of the 2024 presidential race has reached unprecedented levels. On Thursday, reports surfaced indicating that Biden could withdraw from the presidential race as soon as this weekend under mounting pressure from close friends and congressional leaders. But that might not mean anything.
Navigating through the murky waters of political rumor and official denial makes it challenging to discern the truth. Earlier this month rumors surfaced that Biden was considering dropping out. Those rumors weren’t true.
Reports indicate that influential figures within the Democratic Party, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), have had candid conversations with Biden about the possibility of ending his campaign since they not only believe he’s going to lose but that he could also ruin the Democrats’ chances of holding the Senate and flipping the House.
Recent reports have suggested that Biden has become “receptive” to the possibility of dropping out and that behind closed doors his rhetoric is wavering. There’s just a huge caveat to this. Amidst these discussions, Biden’s campaign remains steadfast in its denial of any consideration of him stepping aside. Quentin Fulks, Biden’s principal deputy campaign manager, forcefully asserted that Biden is unequivocally committed to staying in the race.
"Our campaign is not working through any scenarios where President Biden is not at the top of the ticket. He is and will be the Democratic nominee,” he said.
Related: Sources Say Joe Biden May Drop Out of the Race Soon
Who are we supposed to believe here? It’s a tough question. There’s no doubt in my mind that Biden believes he can win and wants to stay in the race. Sure enough, so far, polls are still arguably close enough that Biden and his handlers could successfully argue that he still can win the race.
They’re probably right.
But if Democrats are divided on his candidacy, whether he thinks he can win or not, a divided party will struggle through the rest of the campaign. Of course, replacing Biden poses a similar problem. There are plenty of loyalists and believers who would be very angry if the party forces Biden out.
Division seems inevitable no matter what happens.
At the same time, the numbers don’t look great for Biden, and his past attempts at a reset of his campaign have failed. A new candidate could effectively reset the campaign and give Democrats an advantage as the Trump campaign might not know how to run against an entirely different candidate.
As for the White House and Biden campaign denials, it’s tough to know what to make of them. If Biden were indeed contemplating stepping aside, the White House and his campaign would likely maintain their stance of denial until the last possible moment. In short, they’re saying exactly what you would expect them to say, even if dropping out is inevitable.
There are also major legal issues that would complicate Biden’s dropping out.
In Wisconsin, a candidate cannot withdraw his name from the ballot except in the event of his death. In Nevada, the deadline for ballot changes has long passed unless the nominee changes due to death or mental incapacity. If Biden were mentally unfit, it could trigger a constitutional crisis, leading to calls for his removal via the 25th Amendment. Something tells me Biden wouldn’t want that.
In Georgia, Biden could withdraw up to 60 days before the election; withdrawing later would keep his name on the ballot, but votes cast for him would be invalidated. Other states have differing rules regarding the timing and reasons for ballot withdrawals, complicating efforts to replace Biden.
If Biden is trying to salvage his candidacy, that may be the best argument he can make. Is that happening behind the scenes?
