It's becoming increasingly apparent that the Democrats are facing a significant uphill battle in the 2024 election, regardless of who tops the ticket. Yet the effort to replace Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket continues. But replacing him may not be the smartest move for Democrats, especially after the failed assassination attempt against Donald Trump.
Let’s face it, even Democratic strategists have said that the assassination attempt will help Trump, and it will be extremely difficult for Biden to overcome his deficit in support and enthusiasm. But replacing Biden brings the Democrats new problems that may not be worth it when Trump has been leading in the polls for months and the outcome of the election may be baked into the cake already.
Let’s not forget, even before Biden’s disastrous debate performance, polls showed Trump ahead — even against all potential Democratic contenders.
So, why switch? Democrats might be better off losing with Biden.
Biden’s continued presence at the top of the ticket simplifies the election dynamics for the Democrats. Replacing Biden now would be extremely divisive and a potential legal nightmare. It would require the party to coalesce around an alternative, a process that would likely expose deep rifts within the Democratic ranks at a time when they need to be united.
Moreover, losing with Biden allows the Democrats to frame the defeat in a way that mitigates long-term damage. If Biden loses, the party will most certainly attribute his defeat to his age and cognitive decline rather than a wholesale rejection of Democratic policies. This narrative protects the ideological core of the party and prevents Trump's victory from being seen as a sweeping mandate for his policies.
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The alternative — replacing Biden with another candidate — poses significant risks. Such a move would not only be bitterly divisive but also limit the future prospects of those who step up to replace him if defeat is inevitable. A loss with a new ticket would shrink the already tiny bench of viable Democratic presidential contenders. Figures like Kamala Harris or actual rising stars in the party (like Gavin Newsom or Gretchen Whitmer) would be marked by a high-profile defeat, potentially sidelining them for future elections. So, losing with Biden would preserve the reputations of other potential Democratic candidates, who might otherwise be tarnished by a defeat in 2024.
If the party accepts that they're heading for a likely defeat in November, regardless of who tops the ticket, then it allows the Democratic Party to redirect resources to down-ballot races, where polls show they have a much better chance of success. Obviously, the idea of losing an election is never an easy one to accept, but the Democrats might find that sticking with Biden, despite his vulnerabilities, offers a more coherent and less destructive path forward.
We know that the party never really liked Joe Biden anyway. He was barely on the Democratic Party's radar in 2008, and he owes his entire post-Senate career to Barack Obama. They rallied behind him in 2020 only because they believed him to be the only electable Democrat, and they only praise his record now because his policies are carbon copies of Barack Obama's.
If they're going to lose anyway, Democrats should lose with Biden. After all, he screwed the party over by running for a second term in the first place.
